{"title":"利用财务数据预测2019冠状病毒病复苏:在越南的应用","authors":"Jesse Lastunen , Matteo Richiardi","doi":"10.1016/j.wdp.2023.100503","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on GDP and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries. To this aim, we exploit variation in financial indexes at the industry level in the early stages of the crisis and relate them to the expected duration of the crisis for each industry, under the assumption that the main shocks to financial prices in 2020 came from COVID-19. Starting from the latest official information available at different stages of the crisis on industry-level trend deviations of GDP, often a few months old, we predict the ensuing recovery trajectories using the most recent financial data available at the time of the prediction. The financial data reflect, among other things, how subsequent waves of infections and information about new vaccines have impacted expectations about the future. We apply our method to Vietnam, one of the most open economies in the world, and obtain predictions that are more optimistic than projections by the International Monetary Fund and other international forecasters, and closer to the realised figures. Our claim is that this better-than-expected performance was visible in stock market data early on but was largely missed by conventional forecasting methods.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":37831,"journal":{"name":"World Development Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10030335/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: An application to Vietnam\",\"authors\":\"Jesse Lastunen , Matteo Richiardi\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.wdp.2023.100503\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on GDP and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries. To this aim, we exploit variation in financial indexes at the industry level in the early stages of the crisis and relate them to the expected duration of the crisis for each industry, under the assumption that the main shocks to financial prices in 2020 came from COVID-19. Starting from the latest official information available at different stages of the crisis on industry-level trend deviations of GDP, often a few months old, we predict the ensuing recovery trajectories using the most recent financial data available at the time of the prediction. The financial data reflect, among other things, how subsequent waves of infections and information about new vaccines have impacted expectations about the future. We apply our method to Vietnam, one of the most open economies in the world, and obtain predictions that are more optimistic than projections by the International Monetary Fund and other international forecasters, and closer to the realised figures. Our claim is that this better-than-expected performance was visible in stock market data early on but was largely missed by conventional forecasting methods.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":37831,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"World Development Perspectives\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10030335/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"World Development Perspectives\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S245229292300019X\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"DEVELOPMENT STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"World Development Perspectives","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S245229292300019X","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"DEVELOPMENT STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: An application to Vietnam
We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on GDP and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries. To this aim, we exploit variation in financial indexes at the industry level in the early stages of the crisis and relate them to the expected duration of the crisis for each industry, under the assumption that the main shocks to financial prices in 2020 came from COVID-19. Starting from the latest official information available at different stages of the crisis on industry-level trend deviations of GDP, often a few months old, we predict the ensuing recovery trajectories using the most recent financial data available at the time of the prediction. The financial data reflect, among other things, how subsequent waves of infections and information about new vaccines have impacted expectations about the future. We apply our method to Vietnam, one of the most open economies in the world, and obtain predictions that are more optimistic than projections by the International Monetary Fund and other international forecasters, and closer to the realised figures. Our claim is that this better-than-expected performance was visible in stock market data early on but was largely missed by conventional forecasting methods.
期刊介绍:
World Development Perspectives is a multi-disciplinary journal of international development. It seeks to explore ways of improving human well-being by examining the performance and impact of interventions designed to address issues related to: poverty alleviation, public health and malnutrition, agricultural production, natural resource governance, globalization and transnational processes, technological progress, gender and social discrimination, and participation in economic and political life. Above all, we are particularly interested in the role of historical, legal, social, economic, political, biophysical, and/or ecological contexts in shaping development processes and outcomes.