{"title":"传播动力学模型与2019冠状病毒病流行:应用与挑战。","authors":"Jinxing Guan, Yang Zhao, Yongyue Wei, Sipeng Shen, Dongfang You, Ruyang Zhang, Theis Lange, Feng Chen","doi":"10.1515/mr-2021-0022","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Since late 2019, the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making. Here, we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission, summarized transmission dynamics models into three main types: compartment extension, parameter extension and population-stratified extension models, highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic: estimating epidemiological parameters, predicting the future trend, evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios. Finally, we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models.</p>","PeriodicalId":74151,"journal":{"name":"Medical review (Berlin, Germany)","volume":"2 1","pages":"89-109"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/da/fa/mr-2-1-mr-2021-0022.PMC9047651.pdf","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges.\",\"authors\":\"Jinxing Guan, Yang Zhao, Yongyue Wei, Sipeng Shen, Dongfang You, Ruyang Zhang, Theis Lange, Feng Chen\",\"doi\":\"10.1515/mr-2021-0022\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Since late 2019, the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making. Here, we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission, summarized transmission dynamics models into three main types: compartment extension, parameter extension and population-stratified extension models, highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic: estimating epidemiological parameters, predicting the future trend, evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios. Finally, we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":74151,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Medical review (Berlin, Germany)\",\"volume\":\"2 1\",\"pages\":\"89-109\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-02-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/da/fa/mr-2-1-mr-2021-0022.PMC9047651.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Medical review (Berlin, Germany)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1515/mr-2021-0022\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Medical review (Berlin, Germany)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/mr-2021-0022","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges.
Since late 2019, the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making. Here, we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission, summarized transmission dynamics models into three main types: compartment extension, parameter extension and population-stratified extension models, highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic: estimating epidemiological parameters, predicting the future trend, evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios. Finally, we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models.
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