Towards integrated assessment of the implications of global change for water management - the Rhine experience

The rivers Rhine and Meuse fulfil important socio-economic and environmental functions for their riparian states. Even under present-day conditions, the demands for flood protection, inland navigation, ecology, hydropower, water availability for agriculture, industry and drinking water are high. Climate change is expected to enhance discrepancies between water supply and demand in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This issue has been investigated in a sequence of climate-impact studies in the Rhine and Meuse basins. These studies firstly focused at hydrological changes. Subsequently, a detailed impact assessment of the demands and vulnerability of the user functions of the water systems in the Netherlands was carried out. In an ongoing project we will establish a set of integrated scenarios for the Rhine and Meuse basins, representing different world-views, based on the so-called Perspectives method. Using these scenarios we attempt to define water management strategies that are robust under uncertainty.