社会流行病学和经济后果模拟模型的原型,以俄罗斯联邦主体为例

IF 2.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY
Dmitry S. Evdokimov
{"title":"社会流行病学和经济后果模拟模型的原型,以俄罗斯联邦主体为例","authors":"Dmitry S. Evdokimov","doi":"10.18254/s207751800023683-0","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Processes associated with extraordinary events that are difficult to control and evaluate, as a rule, are built on patterns of past events or historical analogues, but the spread of coronavirus infection is a kind of unique phenomenon that has affected all spheres of life of states and the world as a whole. This article is a continuation of a study related to the assessment of the socio-epidemiological and economic consequences that led to the spread of COVID-19. Previously, the architecture of the model was created taking into account world practices for building such blocks for simulation models. The prototype combines three fully functional blocks. At this stage of the study, a prototype model was formed, which takes into account demographic, epidemiological and economic processes that are closely related to each other. The simulation has been running continuously since 2018 and covers three chronological periods - before the pandemic, during the pandemic and the forecast period. The experiment ends in 2025, after which a set of statistical indicators is produced for the three aligned blocks. The prototype model has prospects for expansion to all subjects of the Russian Federation. Also, if you add a loading module, it can be launched using supercomputer technologies on a scale of 1: 1 in terms of the number of agents that form an artificial society on the basis of which scenario experiments were carried out.","PeriodicalId":51498,"journal":{"name":"Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation","volume":"2106 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Prototype of Simulation model of Socio-epidemiological and economic consequences on the example of Russian Federation subjects\",\"authors\":\"Dmitry S. Evdokimov\",\"doi\":\"10.18254/s207751800023683-0\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Processes associated with extraordinary events that are difficult to control and evaluate, as a rule, are built on patterns of past events or historical analogues, but the spread of coronavirus infection is a kind of unique phenomenon that has affected all spheres of life of states and the world as a whole. This article is a continuation of a study related to the assessment of the socio-epidemiological and economic consequences that led to the spread of COVID-19. Previously, the architecture of the model was created taking into account world practices for building such blocks for simulation models. The prototype combines three fully functional blocks. At this stage of the study, a prototype model was formed, which takes into account demographic, epidemiological and economic processes that are closely related to each other. The simulation has been running continuously since 2018 and covers three chronological periods - before the pandemic, during the pandemic and the forecast period. The experiment ends in 2025, after which a set of statistical indicators is produced for the three aligned blocks. The prototype model has prospects for expansion to all subjects of the Russian Federation. Also, if you add a loading module, it can be launched using supercomputer technologies on a scale of 1: 1 in terms of the number of agents that form an artificial society on the basis of which scenario experiments were carried out.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51498,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation\",\"volume\":\"2106 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.18254/s207751800023683-0\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18254/s207751800023683-0","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

通常,与难以控制和评估的特殊事件相关的进程是建立在过去事件或历史类似事件的模式之上的,但冠状病毒感染的传播是一种独特的现象,影响了各国和整个世界生活的各个领域。本文是一项有关评估导致COVID-19传播的社会流行病学和经济后果的研究的延续。在此之前,模型的体系结构是考虑到为模拟模型构建此类模块的世界实践而创建的。原型结合了三个功能齐全的模块。在研究的这一阶段,形成了一个原型模型,该模型考虑了相互密切相关的人口、流行病学和经济过程。自2018年以来,该模拟一直在持续运行,涵盖了大流行前、大流行期间和预测期三个时间阶段。实验将于2025年结束,之后将为三个对齐的块生成一套统计指标。原型模式有可能扩展到俄罗斯联邦的所有主体。此外,如果你添加一个加载模块,它可以使用超级计算机技术以1:1的比例启动,以形成一个人工社会的代理数量为基础,在此基础上进行场景实验。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Prototype of Simulation model of Socio-epidemiological and economic consequences on the example of Russian Federation subjects
Processes associated with extraordinary events that are difficult to control and evaluate, as a rule, are built on patterns of past events or historical analogues, but the spread of coronavirus infection is a kind of unique phenomenon that has affected all spheres of life of states and the world as a whole. This article is a continuation of a study related to the assessment of the socio-epidemiological and economic consequences that led to the spread of COVID-19. Previously, the architecture of the model was created taking into account world practices for building such blocks for simulation models. The prototype combines three fully functional blocks. At this stage of the study, a prototype model was formed, which takes into account demographic, epidemiological and economic processes that are closely related to each other. The simulation has been running continuously since 2018 and covers three chronological periods - before the pandemic, during the pandemic and the forecast period. The experiment ends in 2025, after which a set of statistical indicators is produced for the three aligned blocks. The prototype model has prospects for expansion to all subjects of the Russian Federation. Also, if you add a loading module, it can be launched using supercomputer technologies on a scale of 1: 1 in terms of the number of agents that form an artificial society on the basis of which scenario experiments were carried out.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
7.40
自引率
9.50%
发文量
16
审稿时长
21 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation is an interdisciplinary journal for the exploration and understanding of social processes by means of computer simulation. Since its first issue in 1998, it has been a world-wide leading reference for readers interested in social simulation and the application of computer simulation in the social sciences. Original research papers and critical reviews on all aspects of social simulation and agent societies that fall within the journal"s objective to further the exploration and understanding of social processes by means of computer simulation are welcome.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信