A background review and ecological risk assessment of the tactical basin plan for the Otter Creek Basin watershed ecosystem restoration project in central Vermont, USA

Extreme climate events, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, can cause acute instability of the hydrologic cycle, thereby threatening the sustainability and resiliency of an authentic watershed ecosystem’s services. A 2011 extreme climate event, known as Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene (Irene), imposed an acute effect on the quality of the ecosystem services in Vermont. This risk assessment of the Otter Creek Basin (the Basin) watershed restoration in central Vermont included an analysis of the conceptual site model, key elements of the strategic plan, and potential ecological outcomes. The outcome of the ecological restoration of the Basin is dependent upon an adaptive management strategy, which is implemented through various regulatory policies. Thereby, a systematic literature review (SLR) of regulatory milestone documents released between 1998 and 2019 was completed to characterize and assess the Basin’s strategic planning efforts and forecasts. To operationalize this study, a replicable methodology was utilized by using a conceptual site model to assess and forecast data trends. Analysis of the data trends resulted in an ecological risk assessment of the 2019 tactical basin plan (TBP) that forecasted 2021–2025 restoration activities. Currently in a transition phase as a hybrid ecosystem while undergoing restoration activities, the Basin’s restoration strategy could result in the re-establishment of the watershed as an authentic ecosystem, which can self-regulate with appropriate biodiversity and ecosystem function based on past history. However, without restoration and resiliency, a poorly managed strategy could result in a decreased classification toward a novel, no-analogue ecosystem, where keystone species are lost and ecosystem functions are highly altered. Therefore, a successful restoration is essential to elevate the Basin from a hybrid ecosystem by restoring its authentic characteristics and regaining its self-regulated natural ecosystem services.