前言:十年后的危机:货币和金融研究的经验教训

Q3 Social Sciences
A. Beyer, B. Coeuré, Caterina Mendicino
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引用次数: 12

摘要

[qh]在全球和欧洲金融危机十年后,金融和经济研究取得了重大进展,以解决用于为货币和金融政策制定提供信息的主流建模框架的缺点。本文首先回顾了计量经济建模领域的进展,即更详细的金融部门,部分非线性,解决利率的有效下限,以及处理国家和经济主体之间的异质性。然后,我们描述了这些进展如何帮助评估非常规货币政策的影响以及货币政策和审慎政策之间的相互作用,也建立在广泛使用微观数据的基础上。我们的结论是,仍需要对负利率的传导及其对金融稳定的影响进行更多的研究,并通过引入有限理性的要素来更好地理解央行的沟通(包括对货币政策的前瞻性指导)。考虑到异质性与货币政策传导的相关性,以及在更广泛的政策讨论中不平等的重要性日益上升,还需要研究建立具有更多异质性主体的模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Foreword ‒ The crisis, ten years after : Lessons learnt for monetary and financial research
[eng] Ten years after the global and European financial crises, significant progress has been made both in financial and economic research to address the shortcomings of mainstream modelling frameworks used to inform monetary and financial policymaking. This article first reviews the progress made in the field of econometric modelling, namely more elaborated financial sectors, partial non-linearity, addressing the effective lower bound for interest rates, and dealing with heterogeneity across countries and economic agents. We then describe how such progress has helped assessing the impact of unconventional monetary policy and the interaction between monetary and prudential policies, also building on the extensive use of micro‑data. We conclude that more research remains needed on the transmission of negative rates and their financial stability repercussions, and to understand better central bank communication (including forward guidance on monetary policy) by introducing elements of bounded rationality. Research remains also needed on building models with more heterogeneous agents, given the relevance of heterogeneity for the transmission of monetary policy and the rising importance of inequality in the broader policy discussion.
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来源期刊
Economie et Statistique
Economie et Statistique Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science
CiteScore
0.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
19
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