气候变化和栖息地丧失导致的极度濒危的针叶树的现状和未来

IF 3 2区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY
Forestry Pub Date : 2020-05-14 DOI:10.1093/forestry/cpz066
C. A. Marchioro, Karine Louise Santos, A. Siminski
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引用次数: 23

摘要

极度濒危的巴西松,又称巴西松(araucaria angustifolia)Kuntze)是Araucaria潮湿林(AMF, Mixed Ombrophilous forest)的关键物种。非法采伐木材、农业转化和严重退化使AMF的覆盖面积减少到只有原始覆盖面积的13%,气候变化给适应寒冷的物种(如荒木属)带来了额外的挑战。以往的研究已经评估了气候变化对刺叶夹竹桃的影响,但受到分析的限制。在这里,我们使用机器学习技术来了解土地利用和气候变化如何影响刺叶针叶的分布,并评估现有保护区(PAs)保护该物种的有效性。我们的研究结果表明,尽管最近努力保护大西洋森林,自然栖息地转化为人工林仍然发生在araucaria的分布范围内。我们的模型预测,在未来几十年里,适合这种物种生存的环境区域将急剧减少77%。此外,现有保护区在未来保护适当区域的效果较低。综上所述,这些结果表明,在未来几十年内,刺竹将面临巨大的威胁,保护策略的制定至关重要。理想情况下,保护计划应结合就地和农场方法,包括森林管理战略。虽然就地策略作为基因库发挥着重要作用,但在预测的适宜地区,可采用场地策略促进刺叶麻种群的恢复和扩大。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Present and future of the critically endangered Araucaria angustifolia due to climate change and habitat loss
The critically endangered Brazilian pine, also called araucaria, (Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) Kuntze) is a key species of the Araucaria moist forest (AMF, Mixed Ombrophilous Forest). Illegal timber extraction, agricultural conversion and severe degradation have reduced the AMF to only 13 per cent of its original cover, with climate change imposing additional challenges for cold adapted species such as araucaria. Previous studies have assessed climate change impacts on A. angustifolia, but have been limited by analysis constraints. Here, we used a machine learning technique to understand how land use and climate change might affect the distribution of A. angustifolia, and to evaluate the effectiveness of existing protected areas (PAs) to conserve this species. Our results demonstrated that despite the recent efforts to conserve the Atlantic Forest, conversion of natural habitats into forest plantation still occurs within araucaria’s distribution range. Our model predicted a drastic reduction in environmentally suitable areas for this species of up to 77 per cent in the coming decades. Also, the existing PAs show low efficacy to protect suitable areas in the future. Combined, these results suggest that A. angustifolia will be under great threat within the next few decades and the development of conservation strategies to save this species is essential. Ideally, the conservation programs should integrate in situ and on farm approaches, including forest management strategies. Although in situ strategies play an important role as gene banks, on-farm strategies can be used to promote the restoration and expansion of A. angustifolia populations in the areas predicted as suitable.
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来源期刊
Forestry
Forestry 农林科学-林学
CiteScore
6.70
自引率
7.10%
发文量
47
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: The journal is inclusive of all subjects, geographical zones and study locations, including trees in urban environments, plantations and natural forests. We welcome papers that consider economic, environmental and social factors and, in particular, studies that take an integrated approach to sustainable management. In considering suitability for publication, attention is given to the originality of contributions and their likely impact on policy and practice, as well as their contribution to the development of knowledge. Special Issues - each year one edition of Forestry will be a Special Issue and will focus on one subject in detail; this will usually be by publication of the proceedings of an international meeting.
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