Investment risk analysis of electricity generation from vinasse biodigestion in the Brazilian Regulated Market

This paper presents a methodology of investment risk analysis of the electricity generation by using biogas from biodigestion of sugarcane vinasse produced in sugarcane agroindustries. The methodology to be presented uses econometric models to generate synthetic time series of ethanol production, which is used to estimate the production of vinasse, biogas and electricity. The economic viability analysis will be done from the evaluation of the probability distribution functions of Net Present Value, Modified Internal Rate of Return and Discounted Payback, by considering that the electricity produced is commercialized in the Brazilian Regulated Contracting Environment. A case study is carried out using real data from a sugarcane plant located in the Midwest region of Brazil. The results indicate the economic viability of the project implementation.