Predictors of ischemic and hemorrhagic complications in patients with myocardial infarction at 18-month follow-up: a single-center registry study

Aim. To identify predictors of ischemic and hemorrhagic events in patients with myocardial infarction (MI) after 18 months of follow-up.Material and Methods. The single-center prospective study included 478 patients with MI. The exclusion criteria were as follows: age < 18 years; MI as a complication of myocardial revascularization; atrial fibrillation; intake of anticoagulants after MI. During inpatient treatment, the risk of ischemic and hemorrhagic events was calculated according to the PRECISE-DAPT score, GRACE hospital discharge risk score, CRUSADE bleeding score. After 18 months, we evaluated the rate of ischemic (cardiovascular death, unstable angina, life-threatening arrhythmia, non-fatal MI and stroke, acute decompensated heart failure, elective repeated and/ or emergency revascularization) and haemorrhagic events and the amount of corresponding therapy.Results. At 18 months post-MI, patients were at high risk of developing both ischemic events (cardiovascular death: 32.0%; recurrent MI: 16.3%; repeated myocardial revascularization: 18.5%; unstable angina: 13.8%; stroke: 3.6%) and hemorrhagic events (bleeding rate of 39.7% according to the TIMI score), most of which occurred during the first 12 months post-MI. Double antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) was prescribed to 86.5% patients upon discharge (including a triple antithrombotic therapy in 8.6% patients). Patient adherence to treatment was 66.7% and 60.6% at 6 and 12 months of follow-up, respectively. After 18 months, DAPT was prescribed exclusively to patients suffered from recurrent ischemic events or those who underwent repeated myocardial revascularization (17.4% patients in total). The main reason to cancel DAPT was bleeding, although it was minor in most cases. Predictors of ischemic events (fatal and non-fatal) at 18 months of follow-up were PRECISE- DAPT score (odds ratio (OR) = 1.108, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.054-1.164, р < 0.001), GRACE score (OR = 1.032, 95% CI = 1.016-1.048, р < 0.001), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40% (OR = 4.256, 95% CI = 1.510-12.001, р = 0.006). Predictors of hemorrhagic events at 18-month follow-up were PRECISE-DAPT score (OR = 1.025, 95% CI = 1.009-1.041, р = 0.002), peripheral artery disease (PAD) (OR = 2.459, 95% CI = 1.365-4.428, р = 0.003), intake of sulfonylurea for diabetes mellitus (OR = 2.523, 95% CI = 1.266-5.028; р = 0.009), unsuccessful percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or conservative treatment of MI (OR = 3.792, 95% CI = 1.799-7.996, р < 0.001).Conclusion. Predictors of ischemic events (fatal and non-fatal) in the long-term period after MI include PRECISE-DAPT and GRACE scores, and LVEF below 40%. Predictors of hemorrhagic events at 18-month follow-up were PRECISE- DAPT scores, PAD, taking sulfonylurea for diabetes mellitus, unsuccessful PCI or conservative treatment of MI.