{"title":"体育运动中的反兴奋剂系统注定要失败:一项概率和成本分析","authors":"A. Hermann, M. Henneberg","doi":"10.4172/2161-0673.1000148","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Objective: Doping in sports now seems to be more widespread despite testing. The objective is to assess the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of the current anti-doping system. \nMethods: A probability and cost analysis was performed. Using calculations based on official world-level data of positive doping test results, sensitivity and frequency of testing in 93 categories of sport, and estimates of numerical characteristics (frequency, window of detectability, test predictability) \nResults: A low probability of doping detection was demonstrated; 0.029 for doping once a week by a single random test with average sensitivity (40%) and window of detectability of 48 hours. With 12 tests a year probability of detection of continuous doping is ~33%. To detect 100% of doping in one year 16-50 tests per athlete must be done costing ~$25,000. \nConclusion: Testing is not economically viable for effective detection. Changes are thus required to the current system to combat sophisticated doping techniques.","PeriodicalId":17085,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Medicine & Doping Studies","volume":"18 1","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2014-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"15","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Anti-doping systems in sports are doomed to fail: a probability and cost analysis\",\"authors\":\"A. Hermann, M. Henneberg\",\"doi\":\"10.4172/2161-0673.1000148\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Objective: Doping in sports now seems to be more widespread despite testing. The objective is to assess the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of the current anti-doping system. \\nMethods: A probability and cost analysis was performed. Using calculations based on official world-level data of positive doping test results, sensitivity and frequency of testing in 93 categories of sport, and estimates of numerical characteristics (frequency, window of detectability, test predictability) \\nResults: A low probability of doping detection was demonstrated; 0.029 for doping once a week by a single random test with average sensitivity (40%) and window of detectability of 48 hours. With 12 tests a year probability of detection of continuous doping is ~33%. To detect 100% of doping in one year 16-50 tests per athlete must be done costing ~$25,000. \\nConclusion: Testing is not economically viable for effective detection. Changes are thus required to the current system to combat sophisticated doping techniques.\",\"PeriodicalId\":17085,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Sports Medicine & Doping Studies\",\"volume\":\"18 1\",\"pages\":\"1-12\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2014-11-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"15\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Sports Medicine & Doping Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.4172/2161-0673.1000148\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Sports Medicine & Doping Studies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2161-0673.1000148","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Anti-doping systems in sports are doomed to fail: a probability and cost analysis
Objective: Doping in sports now seems to be more widespread despite testing. The objective is to assess the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of the current anti-doping system.
Methods: A probability and cost analysis was performed. Using calculations based on official world-level data of positive doping test results, sensitivity and frequency of testing in 93 categories of sport, and estimates of numerical characteristics (frequency, window of detectability, test predictability)
Results: A low probability of doping detection was demonstrated; 0.029 for doping once a week by a single random test with average sensitivity (40%) and window of detectability of 48 hours. With 12 tests a year probability of detection of continuous doping is ~33%. To detect 100% of doping in one year 16-50 tests per athlete must be done costing ~$25,000.
Conclusion: Testing is not economically viable for effective detection. Changes are thus required to the current system to combat sophisticated doping techniques.