体育运动中的反兴奋剂系统注定要失败:一项概率和成本分析

A. Hermann, M. Henneberg
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引用次数: 15

摘要

目的:尽管进行了检测,但现在体育运动中的兴奋剂似乎更为普遍。目的是评估当前反兴奋剂系统的有效性和成本效益。方法:进行概率和成本分析。基于世界范围内兴奋剂阳性检测结果的官方数据、93个体育项目的检测灵敏度和频率,以及对数字特征(频率、可检测窗口、测试可预测性)的估计,进行了计算。结果表明:兴奋剂检测的概率很低;每周1次,单次随机检测0.029,平均灵敏度为40%,检测窗口为48小时。每年检测12次,检测出连续使用兴奋剂的概率约为33%。要在一年内100%检测出兴奋剂,每位运动员必须进行16-50次检测,成本约为2.5万美元。结论:经济上不可行的检测方法是有效的。因此,需要对现行制度进行改革,以对抗复杂的兴奋剂技术。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Anti-doping systems in sports are doomed to fail: a probability and cost analysis
Objective: Doping in sports now seems to be more widespread despite testing. The objective is to assess the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of the current anti-doping system. Methods: A probability and cost analysis was performed. Using calculations based on official world-level data of positive doping test results, sensitivity and frequency of testing in 93 categories of sport, and estimates of numerical characteristics (frequency, window of detectability, test predictability) Results: A low probability of doping detection was demonstrated; 0.029 for doping once a week by a single random test with average sensitivity (40%) and window of detectability of 48 hours. With 12 tests a year probability of detection of continuous doping is ~33%. To detect 100% of doping in one year 16-50 tests per athlete must be done costing ~$25,000. Conclusion: Testing is not economically viable for effective detection. Changes are thus required to the current system to combat sophisticated doping techniques.
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