Stefan Meisenbacher, Marian Turowski, Kaleb Phipps, Martin Ratz, D. Muller, V. Hagenmeyer, R. Mikut
{"title":"回顾自动化时间序列预测管道","authors":"Stefan Meisenbacher, Marian Turowski, Kaleb Phipps, Martin Ratz, D. Muller, V. Hagenmeyer, R. Mikut","doi":"10.1002/widm.1475","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Time series forecasting is fundamental for various use cases in different domains such as energy systems and economics. Creating a forecasting model for a specific use case requires an iterative and complex design process. The typical design process includes five sections (1) data preprocessing, (2) feature engineering, (3) hyperparameter optimization, (4) forecasting method selection, and (5) forecast ensembling, which are commonly organized in a pipeline structure. One promising approach to handle the ever‐growing demand for time series forecasts is automating this design process. The article, thus, reviews existing literature on automated time series forecasting pipelines and analyzes how the design process of forecasting models is currently automated. Thereby, we consider both automated machine learning (AutoML) and automated statistical forecasting methods in a single forecasting pipeline. For this purpose, we first present and compare the identified automation methods for each pipeline section. Second, we analyze these automation methods regarding their interaction, combination, and coverage of the five pipeline sections. For both, we discuss the reviewed literature that contributes toward automating the design process, identify problems, give recommendations, and suggest future research. This review reveals that the majority of the reviewed literature only covers two or three of the five pipeline sections. We conclude that future research has to holistically consider the automation of the forecasting pipeline to enable the large‐scale application of time series forecasting.","PeriodicalId":48970,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery","volume":"23 3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"19","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Review of automated time series forecasting pipelines\",\"authors\":\"Stefan Meisenbacher, Marian Turowski, Kaleb Phipps, Martin Ratz, D. Muller, V. Hagenmeyer, R. Mikut\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/widm.1475\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Time series forecasting is fundamental for various use cases in different domains such as energy systems and economics. Creating a forecasting model for a specific use case requires an iterative and complex design process. The typical design process includes five sections (1) data preprocessing, (2) feature engineering, (3) hyperparameter optimization, (4) forecasting method selection, and (5) forecast ensembling, which are commonly organized in a pipeline structure. One promising approach to handle the ever‐growing demand for time series forecasts is automating this design process. The article, thus, reviews existing literature on automated time series forecasting pipelines and analyzes how the design process of forecasting models is currently automated. Thereby, we consider both automated machine learning (AutoML) and automated statistical forecasting methods in a single forecasting pipeline. For this purpose, we first present and compare the identified automation methods for each pipeline section. Second, we analyze these automation methods regarding their interaction, combination, and coverage of the five pipeline sections. For both, we discuss the reviewed literature that contributes toward automating the design process, identify problems, give recommendations, and suggest future research. This review reveals that the majority of the reviewed literature only covers two or three of the five pipeline sections. We conclude that future research has to holistically consider the automation of the forecasting pipeline to enable the large‐scale application of time series forecasting.\",\"PeriodicalId\":48970,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery\",\"volume\":\"23 3 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-02-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"19\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"94\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1002/widm.1475\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"计算机科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery","FirstCategoryId":"94","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/widm.1475","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Review of automated time series forecasting pipelines
Time series forecasting is fundamental for various use cases in different domains such as energy systems and economics. Creating a forecasting model for a specific use case requires an iterative and complex design process. The typical design process includes five sections (1) data preprocessing, (2) feature engineering, (3) hyperparameter optimization, (4) forecasting method selection, and (5) forecast ensembling, which are commonly organized in a pipeline structure. One promising approach to handle the ever‐growing demand for time series forecasts is automating this design process. The article, thus, reviews existing literature on automated time series forecasting pipelines and analyzes how the design process of forecasting models is currently automated. Thereby, we consider both automated machine learning (AutoML) and automated statistical forecasting methods in a single forecasting pipeline. For this purpose, we first present and compare the identified automation methods for each pipeline section. Second, we analyze these automation methods regarding their interaction, combination, and coverage of the five pipeline sections. For both, we discuss the reviewed literature that contributes toward automating the design process, identify problems, give recommendations, and suggest future research. This review reveals that the majority of the reviewed literature only covers two or three of the five pipeline sections. We conclude that future research has to holistically consider the automation of the forecasting pipeline to enable the large‐scale application of time series forecasting.
期刊介绍:
The goals of Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery (WIREs DMKD) are multifaceted. Firstly, the journal aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of data mining and knowledge discovery by featuring ongoing reviews authored by leading researchers. Secondly, it seeks to highlight the interdisciplinary nature of the field by presenting articles from diverse perspectives, covering various application areas such as technology, business, healthcare, education, government, society, and culture. Thirdly, WIREs DMKD endeavors to keep pace with the rapid advancements in data mining and knowledge discovery through regular content updates. Lastly, the journal strives to promote active engagement in the field by presenting its accomplishments and challenges in an accessible manner to a broad audience. The content of WIREs DMKD is intended to benefit upper-level undergraduate and postgraduate students, teaching and research professors in academic programs, as well as scientists and research managers in industry.