为民主服务:佛罗里达州投票资源差距的证据

Manag. Sci. Pub Date : 2022-07-26 DOI:10.1287/mnsc.2022.4497
Gérard P. Cachon, Dawson Kaaua
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引用次数: 0

摘要

佛罗里达州是美国总统选举的重要州,近年来,媒体对该州选民排长队投票的情况进行了大量报道。人口中的某些部分是否获得了不成比例的用于投票进程的资源,从而可能鼓励或劝阻某些人不投票?我们进行了第一次实证小组数据研究,以检查佛罗里达州的少数民族和民主党选民是否经历了较低的投票工作人员配备,这可能会延长投票时间。我们没有发现直接由种族造成的差异的证据。相反,我们观察到一种政党效应——在其他条件相同的情况下,一个县登记为民主党的选民比例每增加1%,每个投票工作人员的登记选民数量就会增加3.5%。这种效应似乎是有意义的——使用投票队列模拟,一个县登记为民主党的选民增加5%,平均投票等待时间就会从40分钟(2012年佛罗里达州投票的平均等待时间大致是这个数字,根据国会选举合作研究,这是该选举中所有州的最高平均等待时间)增加到115分钟左右。本文被运营管理专业的Vishal Gaur接受。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Serving Democracy: Evidence of Voting Resource Disparity in Florida
Florida, an important state in presidential elections in the United States, has received considerable media coverage in recent years for long lines to vote. Do some segments of the population receive a disproportionate share of the resources to serve the voting process, which could encourage some or dissuade others from voting? We conduct the first empirical panel data study to examine whether minority and Democrat voters in Florida experience lower poll worker staffing, which could lengthen the time to vote. We do not find evidence of a disparity directly due to race. Instead, we observe a political party effect—all else equal, a 1% increase in the percentage of voters registered as Democrat in a county increases the number of registered voters per poll worker by 3.5%. This effect appears to be meaningful—using a voting queue simulation, a 5% increase in voters registered as Democrat in a county could increase the average wait time to vote from 40 minutes (the approximate average wait time to vote in Florida in 2012 and the highest average wait time across all states in that election per the Cooperative Congressional Election Study) to about 115 minutes. This paper was accepted by Vishal Gaur, operations management.
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