{"title":"葡萄牙农业食品部门弹性:使用结构性断裂应用于国际贸易的分析","authors":"M. D. F. Oliveira, Pedro Reis","doi":"10.3390/agriculture13091699","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In the last two decades, Portugal suffered the effects of two global crises, the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the Common Agriculture Policy reforms. These crises had a great impact on the Portuguese economy, but it is completely unclear how they affected the dynamics of the Portuguese agrifood sector. This study’s objective is to analyze the resilience of this sector to European and global socks, testing the effects on international trade. Secondary data from the Portuguese Statistics Institute were used for the exports and imports trade series of animal and vegetable products and food industries from 2000 to 2020. The methodology was based on the structural xtbreak model, stability analysis, and tests for structural breaks. Some volatility was observed in the trade series, particularly in imports, without consistency among years, trade sectors, or imports versus exports trade. In the case of exports, one or two structural breaks in the different sectors occurred in different years. The most relevant dynamics occurred after the sovereign debt crisis. It was concluded that CAP reforms and global crises seem to not have caused new relevant dynamics in the Portuguese international agrifood trade. This revealed the resilience of the sector to external shocks.","PeriodicalId":48587,"journal":{"name":"Agriculture-Basel","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Portuguese Agrifood Sector Resilience: An Analysis Using Structural Breaks Applied to International Trade\",\"authors\":\"M. D. F. Oliveira, Pedro Reis\",\"doi\":\"10.3390/agriculture13091699\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In the last two decades, Portugal suffered the effects of two global crises, the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the Common Agriculture Policy reforms. These crises had a great impact on the Portuguese economy, but it is completely unclear how they affected the dynamics of the Portuguese agrifood sector. This study’s objective is to analyze the resilience of this sector to European and global socks, testing the effects on international trade. Secondary data from the Portuguese Statistics Institute were used for the exports and imports trade series of animal and vegetable products and food industries from 2000 to 2020. The methodology was based on the structural xtbreak model, stability analysis, and tests for structural breaks. Some volatility was observed in the trade series, particularly in imports, without consistency among years, trade sectors, or imports versus exports trade. In the case of exports, one or two structural breaks in the different sectors occurred in different years. The most relevant dynamics occurred after the sovereign debt crisis. It was concluded that CAP reforms and global crises seem to not have caused new relevant dynamics in the Portuguese international agrifood trade. This revealed the resilience of the sector to external shocks.\",\"PeriodicalId\":48587,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Agriculture-Basel\",\"volume\":\"34 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-08-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Agriculture-Basel\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13091699\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AGRONOMY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Agriculture-Basel","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13091699","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRONOMY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Portuguese Agrifood Sector Resilience: An Analysis Using Structural Breaks Applied to International Trade
In the last two decades, Portugal suffered the effects of two global crises, the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the Common Agriculture Policy reforms. These crises had a great impact on the Portuguese economy, but it is completely unclear how they affected the dynamics of the Portuguese agrifood sector. This study’s objective is to analyze the resilience of this sector to European and global socks, testing the effects on international trade. Secondary data from the Portuguese Statistics Institute were used for the exports and imports trade series of animal and vegetable products and food industries from 2000 to 2020. The methodology was based on the structural xtbreak model, stability analysis, and tests for structural breaks. Some volatility was observed in the trade series, particularly in imports, without consistency among years, trade sectors, or imports versus exports trade. In the case of exports, one or two structural breaks in the different sectors occurred in different years. The most relevant dynamics occurred after the sovereign debt crisis. It was concluded that CAP reforms and global crises seem to not have caused new relevant dynamics in the Portuguese international agrifood trade. This revealed the resilience of the sector to external shocks.
期刊介绍:
Agriculture (ISSN 2077-0472) is an international and cross-disciplinary scholarly and scientific open access journal on the science of cultivating the soil, growing, harvesting crops, and raising livestock. We will aim to look at production, processing, marketing and use of foods, fibers, plants and animals. The journal Agriculturewill publish reviews, regular research papers, communications and short notes, and there is no restriction on the length of the papers. Our aim is to encourage scientists to publish their experimental and theoretical research in as much detail as possible. Full experimental and/or methodical details must be provided for research articles.