基于模糊逻辑的小型电力系统短期负荷预测

2011 Fourth International Conference on Modeling, Simulation and Applied Optimization Pub Date : 2011-04-19 DOI:10.1109/ICMSAO.2011.5943733

M. F. I. Khamis, Z. Baharudin, N. H. Hamid, M. Abdullah, F. Nordin

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引用次数: 10

摘要

负荷预测在电厂规划和运行中具有重要作用。近年来提出了许多新的预报系统。天然气区域供冷(GDC)厂是为Universiti tecknoologi PETRONAS (UTP)提供电力和冷冻水。它在正常模式下运行孤岛运行，公用事业公司在热备用模式下供电。该电厂有两台发电机组，每台额定功率为4.2兆瓦，最大发电能力为8.4兆瓦。本文提出了一种实用的UTP短期负荷预测方法。该方法采用模糊逻辑方法，基于UTP 2008年电力需求数据设计STLF模型。用2009年1月至6月的实际负荷数据对所提出的模型进行了测试。试验结果表明，该方法的平均绝对百分比误差为4.59%。

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Short term load forecasting for small scale power system using fuzzy logic

Load forecasting has an important role in planning and operations in power generation plant. Many new forecasting systems have been presented and proposed in recent years. Gas District Cooling (GDC) plant was built to supply electricity and chilled water for Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP). It operates on island operation during normal mode with utility company supply on hot standby mode. The plant has two generation units rated at 4.2 MW each, with a maximum generation capacity of 8.4 MW. In this paper, a practical short term load forecasting (STLF) method for UTP is presented. In the proposed method, a fuzzy logic approach was used and STLF model was designed based on UTP 2008 electricity demand data. The proposed model was tested with actual load data for January till June 2009 period. The test results show that the mean absolute percentage error of 4.59%.

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2011 Fourth International Conference on Modeling, Simulation and Applied Optimization

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