{"title":"高阶证据与自我定位的动力:基于精度的校准论证》。","authors":"Brett Topey","doi":"10.1007/s10670-022-00589-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The thesis that agents should <i>calibrate</i> their beliefs in the face of higher-order evidence-i.e., should adjust their first-order beliefs in response to evidence suggesting that the reasoning underlying those beliefs is faulty-is sometimes thought to be in tension with Bayesian approaches to belief update: in order to obey Bayesian norms, it's claimed, agents must remain <i>steadfast</i> in the face of higher-order evidence. But I argue that this claim is incorrect. In particular, I motivate a minimal constraint on a reasonable treatment of the evolution of self-locating beliefs over time and show that calibrationism is compatible with any generalized Bayesian approach that respects this constraint. I then use this result to argue that remaining steadfast isn't the response to higher-order evidence that maximizes expected accuracy.</p>","PeriodicalId":17663,"journal":{"name":"Journal of virological methods","volume":"244 1","pages":"1407-1433"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11014817/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Higher-Order Evidence and the Dynamics of Self-Location: An Accuracy-Based Argument for Calibrationism.\",\"authors\":\"Brett Topey\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10670-022-00589-9\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>The thesis that agents should <i>calibrate</i> their beliefs in the face of higher-order evidence-i.e., should adjust their first-order beliefs in response to evidence suggesting that the reasoning underlying those beliefs is faulty-is sometimes thought to be in tension with Bayesian approaches to belief update: in order to obey Bayesian norms, it's claimed, agents must remain <i>steadfast</i> in the face of higher-order evidence. But I argue that this claim is incorrect. In particular, I motivate a minimal constraint on a reasonable treatment of the evolution of self-locating beliefs over time and show that calibrationism is compatible with any generalized Bayesian approach that respects this constraint. I then use this result to argue that remaining steadfast isn't the response to higher-order evidence that maximizes expected accuracy.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":17663,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of virological methods\",\"volume\":\"244 1\",\"pages\":\"1407-1433\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11014817/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of virological methods\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10670-022-00589-9\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2022/8/27 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of virological methods","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10670-022-00589-9","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2022/8/27 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Higher-Order Evidence and the Dynamics of Self-Location: An Accuracy-Based Argument for Calibrationism.
The thesis that agents should calibrate their beliefs in the face of higher-order evidence-i.e., should adjust their first-order beliefs in response to evidence suggesting that the reasoning underlying those beliefs is faulty-is sometimes thought to be in tension with Bayesian approaches to belief update: in order to obey Bayesian norms, it's claimed, agents must remain steadfast in the face of higher-order evidence. But I argue that this claim is incorrect. In particular, I motivate a minimal constraint on a reasonable treatment of the evolution of self-locating beliefs over time and show that calibrationism is compatible with any generalized Bayesian approach that respects this constraint. I then use this result to argue that remaining steadfast isn't the response to higher-order evidence that maximizes expected accuracy.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Virological Methods focuses on original, high quality research papers that describe novel and comprehensively tested methods which enhance human, animal, plant, bacterial or environmental virology and prions research and discovery.
The methods may include, but not limited to, the study of:
Viral components and morphology-
Virus isolation, propagation and development of viral vectors-
Viral pathogenesis, oncogenesis, vaccines and antivirals-
Virus replication, host-pathogen interactions and responses-
Virus transmission, prevention, control and treatment-
Viral metagenomics and virome-
Virus ecology, adaption and evolution-
Applied virology such as nanotechnology-
Viral diagnosis with novelty and comprehensive evaluation.
We seek articles, systematic reviews, meta-analyses and laboratory protocols that include comprehensive technical details with statistical confirmations that provide validations against current best practice, international standards or quality assurance programs and which advance knowledge in virology leading to improved medical, veterinary or agricultural practices and management.