高阶证据与自我定位的动力:基于精度的校准论证》。

IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS
Journal of virological methods Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-08-27 DOI:10.1007/s10670-022-00589-9
Brett Topey
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引用次数: 0

摘要

代理人应该在高阶证据面前校准他们的信念--也就是说,应该在有证据表明这些信念的推理有误时调整他们的一阶信念--这一论点有时被认为与贝叶斯信念更新方法相冲突:据称,为了遵守贝叶斯规范,代理人必须在高阶证据面前保持坚定。但我认为这种说法是不正确的。具体而言,我提出了合理处理自我定位信念随时间演变的最小约束,并证明校准主义与任何尊重这一约束的广义贝叶斯方法都是兼容的。然后,我用这一结果来论证,保持坚定并不是对高阶证据做出最大化预期准确性的回应。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Higher-Order Evidence and the Dynamics of Self-Location: An Accuracy-Based Argument for Calibrationism.

The thesis that agents should calibrate their beliefs in the face of higher-order evidence-i.e., should adjust their first-order beliefs in response to evidence suggesting that the reasoning underlying those beliefs is faulty-is sometimes thought to be in tension with Bayesian approaches to belief update: in order to obey Bayesian norms, it's claimed, agents must remain steadfast in the face of higher-order evidence. But I argue that this claim is incorrect. In particular, I motivate a minimal constraint on a reasonable treatment of the evolution of self-locating beliefs over time and show that calibrationism is compatible with any generalized Bayesian approach that respects this constraint. I then use this result to argue that remaining steadfast isn't the response to higher-order evidence that maximizes expected accuracy.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
209
审稿时长
41 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Virological Methods focuses on original, high quality research papers that describe novel and comprehensively tested methods which enhance human, animal, plant, bacterial or environmental virology and prions research and discovery. The methods may include, but not limited to, the study of: Viral components and morphology- Virus isolation, propagation and development of viral vectors- Viral pathogenesis, oncogenesis, vaccines and antivirals- Virus replication, host-pathogen interactions and responses- Virus transmission, prevention, control and treatment- Viral metagenomics and virome- Virus ecology, adaption and evolution- Applied virology such as nanotechnology- Viral diagnosis with novelty and comprehensive evaluation. We seek articles, systematic reviews, meta-analyses and laboratory protocols that include comprehensive technical details with statistical confirmations that provide validations against current best practice, international standards or quality assurance programs and which advance knowledge in virology leading to improved medical, veterinary or agricultural practices and management.
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