Forecasting worst case pollution scenarios for acid gas and suspended particulates due to urban industrial development

The CRES model developed by Simpson et al. (1983) is used to estimate worst case scenarios for acid gas and suspended particulate levels in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia. It is shown that the CRES model allows for the effects of both long-term meteorological fluctuations and changes in emissions. The model is used to identify the extreme meteorological years in an extensive wind speed data set for the period 1951–1981. It is applied to estimate the allowable range of increases in emissions consistent with ambient air quality management policy, demonstrated here as the maintenance of WHO standards. The risk of using restricted data sets is shown by comparing the results for extreme meteorological years. The techniques used here provide a fundamental basis for investigating the effects of control policy and air quality management options in an urban area where the assumptions of the CRES model are applicable.