Sindhu Bharathi Mandharachalam, R. Murugesan, Sumathi Chakravarthy
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A CGE-ML Approach to Analysing India’s Free Trade Agreements
India has set an ambitious export target of US$0.5 trillion by 2025 and US$1 trillion by 2030 from US$291 billion in 2021 as part of its Atmanirbhar Bharat campaign. Since India opened up its economy in 1991, India has concluded several bilateral and regional free trade agreements. India signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the United Arab Emirates in February 2022 and Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) with Australia in April 2022. India is in the process of concluding trade agreements with the UK, the European Union, Canada, Israel and GCC countries. This article estimates the impact of all the above mentioned FTAs on India’s GDP and its components with an increased emphasis on its exports using a computable general equilibrium framework and machine learning techniques. The analysis estimates that the FTAs will boost India’s GDP by 4.10% to add US$109.096 billion in 2030 and the exports increase by 16.73% or US$46.08 billion. The exports from India to UAE, Australia, UK, European Union, Canada, Israel and GCC countries are estimated to increase by US$67.312 billion by 2030. This increase is relatively higher than the increase in aggregate exports of India suggesting a trade diversion from countries that are not part of the FTAs toward the seven countries with which India is anticipated to sign an FTA.
期刊介绍:
Vision-The Journal of Business Perspective is a quarterly peer-reviewed journal of the Management Development Institute, Gurgaon, India published by SAGE Publications. This journal contains papers in all functional areas of management, including economic and business environment. The journal is premised on creating influence on the academic as well as corporate thinkers. Vision-The Journal of Business Perspective is published in March, June, September and December every year. Its targeted readers are researchers, academics involved in research, and corporates with excellent professional backgrounds from India and other parts of the globe. Its contents have been often used as supportive course materials by the academics and corporate professionals. The journal has been providing opportunity for discussion and exchange of ideas across the widest spectrum of scholarly opinions to promote theoretical, empirical and comparative research on problems confronting the business world. Most of the contributors to this journal range from the outstanding and the well published to the upcoming young academics and corporate functionaries. The journal publishes theoretical as well as applied research works.