用CGE-ML方法分析印度自由贸易协定

IF 3 Q2 BUSINESS
Sindhu Bharathi Mandharachalam, R. Murugesan, Sumathi Chakravarthy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

印度制定了雄心勃勃的出口目标,到2025年达到0.5万亿美元,到2030年达到1万亿美元,从2021年的2910亿美元增加到2030年的2910亿美元,作为其“阿特马尼巴尔巴拉”运动的一部分。自1991年开放经济以来,印度已经缔结了几个双边和区域自由贸易协定。印度于2022年2月与阿拉伯联合酋长国签署了全面经济伙伴关系协定(CEPA),并于2022年4月与澳大利亚签署了经济合作与贸易协定(ECTA)。印度正在与英国、欧盟、加拿大、以色列和海湾合作委员会国家签订贸易协定。本文使用可计算的一般均衡框架和机器学习技术,估计了上述所有自由贸易协定对印度GDP及其组成部分的影响,并更加强调其出口。分析预计,自贸协定将推动印度GDP增长4.10%,到2030年将增加1090.96亿美元,出口将增加16.73%,达到460.8亿美元。到2030年,印度对阿联酋、澳大利亚、英国、欧盟、加拿大、以色列和海湾合作委员会国家的出口预计将增加673.12亿美元。这一增幅相对高于印度的出口总额增幅,表明贸易从非自由贸易协定参加国转向了预计与印度签署自由贸易协定的7个国家。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A CGE-ML Approach to Analysing India’s Free Trade Agreements
India has set an ambitious export target of US$0.5 trillion by 2025 and US$1 trillion by 2030 from US$291 billion in 2021 as part of its Atmanirbhar Bharat campaign. Since India opened up its economy in 1991, India has concluded several bilateral and regional free trade agreements. India signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the United Arab Emirates in February 2022 and Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) with Australia in April 2022. India is in the process of concluding trade agreements with the UK, the European Union, Canada, Israel and GCC countries. This article estimates the impact of all the above mentioned FTAs on India’s GDP and its components with an increased emphasis on its exports using a computable general equilibrium framework and machine learning techniques. The analysis estimates that the FTAs will boost India’s GDP by 4.10% to add US$109.096 billion in 2030 and the exports increase by 16.73% or US$46.08 billion. The exports from India to UAE, Australia, UK, European Union, Canada, Israel and GCC countries are estimated to increase by US$67.312 billion by 2030. This increase is relatively higher than the increase in aggregate exports of India suggesting a trade diversion from countries that are not part of the FTAs toward the seven countries with which India is anticipated to sign an FTA.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
121
期刊介绍: Vision-The Journal of Business Perspective is a quarterly peer-reviewed journal of the Management Development Institute, Gurgaon, India published by SAGE Publications. This journal contains papers in all functional areas of management, including economic and business environment. The journal is premised on creating influence on the academic as well as corporate thinkers. Vision-The Journal of Business Perspective is published in March, June, September and December every year. Its targeted readers are researchers, academics involved in research, and corporates with excellent professional backgrounds from India and other parts of the globe. Its contents have been often used as supportive course materials by the academics and corporate professionals. The journal has been providing opportunity for discussion and exchange of ideas across the widest spectrum of scholarly opinions to promote theoretical, empirical and comparative research on problems confronting the business world. Most of the contributors to this journal range from the outstanding and the well published to the upcoming young academics and corporate functionaries. The journal publishes theoretical as well as applied research works.
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