有序的主权债务重组:行动中的缺失!(而且很可能继续如此)

IF 8.7 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Bank Research Observer Pub Date : 2014-02-01 DOI:10.1093/WBRO/LKT020

Otaviano Canuto, Brian Pinto, M. Prasad

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引用次数: 2

摘要

有序的主权债务重组应使债务国的公共债务走上可持续轨道，同时最大限度地减少拖延和传染。然而，20世纪80年代、1998年的俄罗斯、2001年的阿根廷和2010年的希腊债务危机的经验表明，即使有强有力的官方干预，有序的债务重组仍然难以实现。当偿债能力出现问题时，如果官方资金以无风险利率放贷(反映出其低风险)，以及私人债权人提前接受减记，那么成功的机会就会增加。本文考察了这些障碍，包括道德风险、难以区分偿付能力危机和流动性危机，以及“政治经济学”对预先削发的抵制。有序的主权债务重组可能仍难以实现，尽管最近有证据表明，官方的心态可能正在改变。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Orderly Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Missing in Action! (And Likely to Remain so)

An orderly sovereign debt restructuring should place the debtor nation's public debt on a sustainable trajectory while minimizing procrastination and contagion. However, the experiences with the debt crisis of the 1980s, Russia 1998, Argentina 2001, and Greece 2010 indicate that orderly debt restructurings remain elusive, even with high-powered official intervention. When solvency problems are present, the chances of success increase if official money is lent at the risk-free rate, reflecting its low risk, and if private creditors receive an upfront haircut. The paper examines the obstacles, which include moral hazard, difficulty in distinguishing between solvency and liquidity crises, and the "political economy" resistance to upfront haircuts. Orderly sovereign debt restructurings are likely to remain elusive notwithstanding recent evidence that the official mindset may be changing.

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来源期刊

World Bank Research Observer Multiple-

CiteScore

12.60

自引率

1.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： The World Bank Journals, including the Research Observer, boast the largest circulation among economics titles. The Research Observer is distributed freely to over 9,100 subscribers in non-OECD countries. Geared towards informing nonspecialist readers about research within and outside the Bank, it covers areas of economics relevant for development policy. Intended for policymakers, project officers, journalists, and educators, its surveys and overviews require only minimal background in economic analysis. Articles are not sent to referees but are assessed and approved by the Editorial Board, including distinguished economists from outside the Bank. The Observer has around 1,500 subscribers in OECD countries and nearly 10,000 subscribers in developing countries.