亚马逊地区气候变化分析的降尺度统计模型技术

D. Mendes, J. Marengo, Sidney Rodrigues, Magaly Oliveira
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引用次数: 5

摘要

亚马逊是一个主要被茂密的热带雨林覆盖的地区,其他几种类型的植被相对较少。在过去的几十年里,科学研究表明,亚马逊雨林的健康与全球气候的完整性之间存在着密切的联系:热带森林和林地(如稀树草原)与大气交换着大量的水和能量,被认为在控制当地和区域气候方面具有重要作用。考虑亚马逊生物群落对全球气候变化影响的重要性以及保护区在生物多样性保护中的作用,以及基于人工神经网络(ANN)的降尺度模型技术的最新进展。校准并运行应用于亚马逊地区的基于人工神经网络(ANN)的降尺度模型技术,以获得区域和当地气候预测数据(如降水)。考虑到亚马逊地区生物群落对全球气候变化影响的重要性和气候模式降尺度技术的现状,本研究的结果如下:使用的人工神经网络与贝伦和玛瑙斯的观测结果相似,相关性分别约为88.9%和91.3%,与空间分布,特别是在校正过程中,具有良好的拟合性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Downscaling Statistical Model Techniques for Climate Change Analysis Applied to the Amazon Region
The Amazon is an area covered predominantly by dense tropical rainforest with relatively small inclusions of several other types of vegetation. In the last decades, scientific research has suggested a strong link between the health of the Amazon and the integrity of the global climate: tropical forests and woodlands (e.g., savannas) exchange vast amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are thought to be important in controlling local and regional climates. Consider the importance of the Amazon biome to the global climate changes impacts and the role of the protected area in the conservation of biodiversity and state-of-art of downscaling model techniques based on ANN Calibrate and run a downscaling model technique based on the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that is applied to the Amazon region in order to obtain regional and local climate predicted data (e.g., precipitation). Considering the importance of the Amazon biome to the global climate changes impacts and the state-of-art of downscaling techniques for climate models, the shower of this work is presented as follows: the use of ANNs good similarity with the observation in the cities of Belem and Manaus, with correlations of approximately 88.9% and 91.3%, respectively, and spatial distribution, especially in the correction process, representing a good fit.
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