基于集成方法的大位移井卡钻早期检测

Rushad Ravilievich Rakhimov, O. Zhdaneev, K. Frolov, Maxim Pavlovich Babich
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摘要

本文的最终目的是描述使用集成方法制备的机器学习模型来防止大位移井在建井过程中卡管事件的经验。执行的任务包括收集,分析和清理历史数据,选择和准备机器学习模型,通过桌面应用程序在实时数据上进行测试。其想法是在钻台上展示解决方案,使司钻能够快速采取措施防止卡钻事件。利用远程监控软件对历史数据进行挖掘和分析。使用可编程脚本和大数据技术对历史和实时数据进行准备、标记和清理。机器学习算法是使用集成方法开发的,该方法允许将多个模型组合在一起以改进最终结果。在该油田,最常见的卡钻类型是固体引起的充填。它们的发生是由于钻出的岩屑没有充分清洗井眼,以及岩石不稳定导致井筒坍塌。大位移钻井(ERD)的卡钻预防需要全面的措施,而最终的任务是交给司钻。由于不断超出ERD范围,人员和钻井设备的工作量增加,预防事故的有效性正在恶化。这将导致严重的后果:井底钻具组合在井中丢失,需要重新钻进,最终增加非生产时间(NPT)。基于集成机器学习算法开发的应用程序预测准确率在94%以上。在ERD井施工过程中,司钻可以根据报警情况迅速采取措施,防止井下事故的发生。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Stuck Pipe Early Detection on Extended Reach Wells Using Ensemble Method of Machine Learning
The ultimate objective of this paper is to describe the experience of using a machine learning model prepared by the ensemble method to prevent stuck pipe events during well construction process on extended reach wells. The tasks performed include collecting, analyzing and cleaning historical data, selecting and preparing a machine learning model, testing it on real-time data by means of desktop application. The idea is to display the solution at the rig floor, allowing Driller to quickly take actions for prevention of stuck pipe event. Historical data mining and analysis were performed using software for remote monitoring. Preparation, labelling and cleaning of historical and real-time data were executed using programmable scripts and big data techniques. The machine learning algorithm was developed using the ensemble method, which allows to combine several models to improve the final result. On the field of interest, the most common type of stuck pipe are solids induced pack offs. They occur due to insufficient hole cleaning from drilled cuttings and wellbore collapse due to rocks instability. Stuck pipe prevention on extended reach drilling (ERD) wells requires holistic approach meanwhile final role is assigned to the driller. Due to continuously exceeding ERD envelope and increased workloads on both personnel and drilling equipment, the effectiveness of preventing accidents is deteriorating. This leads to severe consequences: Bottom Hole Assembly lost in hole, the necessity to re-drill the bore and eventually to increased Non-Productive Time (NPT). Developed application based on ensemble machine learning algorithm shows prediction accuracy above 94%. Reacting on alarms, driller can quickly take measures to prevent downhole accidents during well construction of ERD wells.
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