Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) range shifts in China: Application of a global model in climate change futures

Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) has been widely used to restore degraded land in northern China for many decades, and the forest has become an important ecosystem in China. However, there is still knowledge gap about how the range shift of black locust in response to future climate change, which is the first step for adaptive management of black locust. Here, a global niche model of black locust was established by means of maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), 1174 global occurrences data, as well as 13 climatic variables. Then, the global niche model was projected to China under current climate (2000) and four future climate scenarios (2080). The results showed that the range of black locust is mainly controlled by temperature related variables rather than precipitation related variables. The latitude of potential range of black locust is mainly between 23° and 40° in China with the area of occupation being about 26.7% (25.7 × 10⁵ km²) of China's total land area. Future climate is conducive to the northward expansion of black locust in China with a speed of 21 km/decade, as well as an upward shift with a speed of 9.6 m/decade across climate scenarios. Relatively high stable ranges (87–94%) and quick range shift speed implies that little vulnerability of black locust in response to climate change, as well as little risk of extinction in China.