Yu-Hua Mo, Chao Deng, Feijie Huang, Qian Tan, Yuan-Kun Li
{"title":"基于综合控制方法的新型卷烟上市策略预测","authors":"Yu-Hua Mo, Chao Deng, Feijie Huang, Qian Tan, Yuan-Kun Li","doi":"10.5121/csit.2023.130704","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In order to accurately predict the ef ect of new product cigarette marketing strategy.We take 18 months of cigarette sales data in city B of province A as the research sample, take new cigarette C as the researchobject, and use the random forest method to fix the errors and missing data. Then, we first use the mature cigarette brand's short-term historical sales and multiple labeling systems including the mature cigarette brand's historical sales data, retailer sales data, merchant circle crowd portrait data. Based on various machine learning method, we calculate the fitting weights of mature cigarettes to new cigarettes and thensimulate and predict the sales trend of new cigarettes. The application ef ect test found the accuracy of new cigarette sales prediction based on the traditional LSTM model was only 33.31%. In comparison, the prediction accuracy of the new model we constructed can reach 94.17%. We address the limitations encountered in new cigarette sales prediction, and fill the research gap in new cigarette launch models.","PeriodicalId":42597,"journal":{"name":"ADCAIJ-Advances in Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence Journal","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting New Cigarette Launch Strategy based on Synthetic Control Method\",\"authors\":\"Yu-Hua Mo, Chao Deng, Feijie Huang, Qian Tan, Yuan-Kun Li\",\"doi\":\"10.5121/csit.2023.130704\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In order to accurately predict the ef ect of new product cigarette marketing strategy.We take 18 months of cigarette sales data in city B of province A as the research sample, take new cigarette C as the researchobject, and use the random forest method to fix the errors and missing data. Then, we first use the mature cigarette brand's short-term historical sales and multiple labeling systems including the mature cigarette brand's historical sales data, retailer sales data, merchant circle crowd portrait data. Based on various machine learning method, we calculate the fitting weights of mature cigarettes to new cigarettes and thensimulate and predict the sales trend of new cigarettes. The application ef ect test found the accuracy of new cigarette sales prediction based on the traditional LSTM model was only 33.31%. In comparison, the prediction accuracy of the new model we constructed can reach 94.17%. We address the limitations encountered in new cigarette sales prediction, and fill the research gap in new cigarette launch models.\",\"PeriodicalId\":42597,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ADCAIJ-Advances in Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence Journal\",\"volume\":\"25 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-04-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ADCAIJ-Advances in Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.5121/csit.2023.130704\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ADCAIJ-Advances in Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5121/csit.2023.130704","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting New Cigarette Launch Strategy based on Synthetic Control Method
In order to accurately predict the ef ect of new product cigarette marketing strategy.We take 18 months of cigarette sales data in city B of province A as the research sample, take new cigarette C as the researchobject, and use the random forest method to fix the errors and missing data. Then, we first use the mature cigarette brand's short-term historical sales and multiple labeling systems including the mature cigarette brand's historical sales data, retailer sales data, merchant circle crowd portrait data. Based on various machine learning method, we calculate the fitting weights of mature cigarettes to new cigarettes and thensimulate and predict the sales trend of new cigarettes. The application ef ect test found the accuracy of new cigarette sales prediction based on the traditional LSTM model was only 33.31%. In comparison, the prediction accuracy of the new model we constructed can reach 94.17%. We address the limitations encountered in new cigarette sales prediction, and fill the research gap in new cigarette launch models.