Climate change impacts on natural icons: Do phenological shifts threaten the relationship between peak wildflowers and visitor satisfaction?

Climate change will affect the timing of natural features of recreational interest, like fall colors, salmon migration, and wildflower blooms; and may therefore alter social-ecological relationships. For example, if fewer recreational visits are aligned with seasonal events of interest, visitor satisfaction could be affected. To explore this possibility at Mount Rainier National Park, we combined data from a community science program (MeadoWatch – MW) with hiking trip reports posted to a hiking organization (Washington Trails Association – WTA). We first explored how peak flowering, WTA trip reports, and visitation varied across years that differed in snow disappearance, a climatic factor that correlates with flowering phenology. We found that wildflower blooms tracked snow disappearance more closely than did trip reports and park visitation, implying a decreasing proportion of future visitors will experience peak wildflower blooms. We next extracted sentiment related to specific trail-experiences (e.g., wildflowers, views) and overall hike satisfaction from WTA trip reports. While wildflowers were a positive component in overall hiker satisfaction, other non-seasonal trail experiences also had positive effects. In all, a shifting wildflower season that is less accessible to visitors could alter perceptions of natural areas like Mount Rainier National Park. Countering negative social-ecological impacts could be achieved by highlighting non-seasonal aspects of the visitor experience, or alternatively, communicating the altered timing of the peak wildflower season while also increasing accessibility during this time. Such actions likely require partnerships between managers of natural areas, interpretive staff, and scientists that study seasonal phenomena of recreational interest.