人为火灾危险预测模型的初步试验。

Q4 Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Taiwan Journal of Forest Science Pub Date : 2002-12-01 DOI:10.7075/TJFS.200212.0525

Chau-Chin Lin

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引用次数: 4

摘要

本文提出了一个结合火灾风险相关生物物理因素和火灾风险相关人类行为因素的综合模型。该模型是对理论火险模型的一种改进。它根据森林徒步者的着火概率和使用意图来预测发生/潜在的火灾。该模型在台湾中部和南部的雪坝和玉山国家公园进行了测试。候选变量提供了支持这个概念模型结构的可接受的结果。由于本研究的研究时间有限，需要对概念模型进行进一步的测试，以评估和改进模型的性能。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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A preliminary test of a human-caused fire danger prediction model.

In this paper, an integrated model that combines bio-physical components related to fire hazards and human behavioral components related to fire risks is proposed. The model is shown to be as an improvement over the theoretical fire danger model. It predicts occurrence/potential based on ignition probability and fire use intentions of forest hikers. Testing of the model was conducted in SheiPa and Yushan National Parks located in central and southern Taiwan. The candidate variables provide acceptable results that support the structure of this conceptual model. Due to limited research time in this study, further tests of the conceptual model are needed to evaluate and improve the performance of the model.

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来源期刊

Taiwan Journal of Forest Science Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Forestry

CiteScore

0.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Taiwan Journal of Forest Science is an academic publication that welcomes contributions from around the world. The journal covers all aspects of forest research, both basic and applied, including Forest Biology and Ecology (tree breeding, silviculture, soils, etc.), Forest Management (watershed management, forest pests and diseases, forest fire, wildlife, recreation, etc.), Biotechnology, and Wood Science. Manuscripts acceptable to the journal include (1) research papers, (2) research notes, (3) review articles, and (4) monographs. A research note differs from a research paper in its scope which is less-comprehensive, yet it contains important information. In other words, a research note offers an innovative perspective or new discovery which is worthy of early disclosure.