跨国公司股票价格的布朗运动模型

IF 2.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY
Ivan Kucherov
{"title":"跨国公司股票价格的布朗运动模型","authors":"Ivan Kucherov","doi":"10.18254/s207751800019525-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This article is concerned with creating a model for stock price using the Brownian motion. At first, we consider the notion of a discrete time stochastic process, simple random walk, and then move on to its continuous analogue, the Brownian motion. Next we identify the problem with using regular Calculus for stochastic differential equations and derive Ito’s Lemma. After that we derive a model for stock prices and use lognormal distribution to determine its expected value and variance. Finally, we use sample volatility to make predictions for Apple and Gazprom stock prices.","PeriodicalId":51498,"journal":{"name":"Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Modeling Stock Price of Transnational companies using Brownian motion\",\"authors\":\"Ivan Kucherov\",\"doi\":\"10.18254/s207751800019525-6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This article is concerned with creating a model for stock price using the Brownian motion. At first, we consider the notion of a discrete time stochastic process, simple random walk, and then move on to its continuous analogue, the Brownian motion. Next we identify the problem with using regular Calculus for stochastic differential equations and derive Ito’s Lemma. After that we derive a model for stock prices and use lognormal distribution to determine its expected value and variance. Finally, we use sample volatility to make predictions for Apple and Gazprom stock prices.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51498,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.18254/s207751800019525-6\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18254/s207751800019525-6","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

本文讨论的是利用布朗运动建立股票价格模型。首先,我们考虑离散时间随机过程的概念,简单随机游走,然后转向它的连续类比,布朗运动。接下来,我们用正则微积分来识别随机微分方程的问题,并推导出伊藤引理。在此基础上,推导出股票价格的模型,并利用对数正态分布确定其期望值和方差。最后,我们利用样本波动率对苹果公司和俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的股价进行预测。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling Stock Price of Transnational companies using Brownian motion
This article is concerned with creating a model for stock price using the Brownian motion. At first, we consider the notion of a discrete time stochastic process, simple random walk, and then move on to its continuous analogue, the Brownian motion. Next we identify the problem with using regular Calculus for stochastic differential equations and derive Ito’s Lemma. After that we derive a model for stock prices and use lognormal distribution to determine its expected value and variance. Finally, we use sample volatility to make predictions for Apple and Gazprom stock prices.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
7.40
自引率
9.50%
发文量
16
审稿时长
21 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation is an interdisciplinary journal for the exploration and understanding of social processes by means of computer simulation. Since its first issue in 1998, it has been a world-wide leading reference for readers interested in social simulation and the application of computer simulation in the social sciences. Original research papers and critical reviews on all aspects of social simulation and agent societies that fall within the journal"s objective to further the exploration and understanding of social processes by means of computer simulation are welcome.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信