COVID-19大流行下股票市场的可持续性

International Journal of Economics and Management Pub Date : 2022-11-10 DOI:10.47836/ijeamsi.16.1.003

Lee Chin, Yong Seong Foo, K. Chen, Farhad Taghizadeh‐Hesary, Woon Leong Lin

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引用次数: 2

摘要

本研究探讨了2019冠状病毒病大流行下股市的可持续性。分析了新冠肺炎确诊病例、死亡人数、移动控制令(MCO)长度对股市的影响。采用广义矩量法(GMM)估计量对57个国家2019年11月4日至2020年7月5日的每周数据进行了分析。结果表明，新冠肺炎确诊病例的增长对股市收益有显著的负向影响，而新冠肺炎死亡人数的增长对股市收益有负向影响，但统计上不显著。本研究还发现MCO周期与股市收益呈非线性倒u型关系，即MCO在初始阶段对股市具有正向影响，但在5.7周后对股市产生负向影响。因此，本研究认为，对COVID-19大流行的政策反应为其对股市可持续性的前所未有的影响提供了最令人信服的解释。因此，各国政府应实施部分封锁，以避免国民经济恶化。此外，政府为控制新冠肺炎疫情而出台的政策和计划，以及为激活经济而出台的经济刺激措施，对经济增长和股市的恢复起到了至关重要的作用

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Sustainability of Stock Market Against COVID-19 Pandemic

This study explored the sustainability of the stock market against the COVID-19 pandemic. The impacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases, COVID-19 deaths, and Movement Control Order (MCO) length on the stock market were examined. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator was employed to analyze 57 countries’ weekly data from November 4th 2019 to July 5th 2020. The findings showed that the growth in confirmed COVID-19 cases has a significant negative effect on stock market returns, while the growth in COVID-19 deaths has a negative yet statistically insignificant influence on stock market returns. This study also found a non-linear inverted U-shaped relationship between the MCO period and stock market returns, implying that though the MCO has initial positive influences on the stock market, it negatively impacts the stock market after 5.7 weeks. Thus, this study argues that policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic provide the most compelling explanation for its unprecedented impact on the sustainability of the stock market. Governments should therefore implement a partial lockdown to avoid deterioration of the national economy. Furthermore, government policies and plans to control the COVID-19 epidemic as well as economic stimulus packages to kickstart the economy play crucial roles in boosting economic growth and revitalizing the stock market

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来源期刊

International Journal of Economics and Management Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The journal focuses on economics and management issues. The main subjects for economics cover national macroeconomic issues, international economic issues, interactions of national and regional economies, microeconomics and macroeconomics policies. The journal also considers thought-leading substantive research in the finance discipline. The main subjects for management include management decisions, Small Medium Enterprises (SME) practices, corporate social policies, digital marketing strategies and strategic management. The journal emphasises empirical studies with practical applications; examinations of theoretical and methodological developments. The journal is committed to publishing the high quality articles from economics and management perspectives. It is a triannual journal published in April, August and December and all articles submitted are in English. IJEM follows a double-blind peer-review process, whereby authors do not know reviewers and vice versa. Peer review is fundamental to the scientific publication process and the dissemination of sound science.