建设项目风险管理中的预防性建模

K. Hayati, Yulia, Daffa Agung
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引用次数: 0

摘要

建筑业是一个服务部门,经常面临不确定的环境,其项目业务的变化率很高。这些变更不仅经常发生在建设项目的实现(构建)阶段,而且还发生在规划(设计)阶段。一般来说,处理这种不确定的情况意味着有可能无法实现项目的目标。尽管这一领域的变化和调整是常见的,但它仍然会给建筑工程带来风险。例如,时间、成本和质量。因此,需要一个预防系统,以尽量减少项目活动期间可能出现的风险。本研究的目的是找出造成建筑企业风险的因素,并进一步提出适用的模型作为风险的预防措施。本研究首先对七个风险指标进行了详细审查;劳动力风险(X1)、合同风险(X2)、人力资源风险(X3)、设计和技术风险(X4)、材料和工具风险(X5)、实施风险(X6)和不可抗力风险(X7)。本研究以问卷调查和专家验证为主要数据,进一步采用分析因子、描述性分析和概率影响矩阵进行分析,以确定风险水平。风险水平分析得出三个变量为顶级事件(显性风险),分别为X1、X3和X4。这些发现随后在鲍蒂图和情景分析的基础上进一步发展,因此提出了一个描述可能的预防和纠正策略的模型。鲍蒂图和情景分析不仅具有指导和警示作用,而且对施工人员进行施工项目风险管理和决策具有实用价值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Preventive Modelling in Risk Management on the Construction Project
The construction industry is a service sector that is often faced uncertain circumstances with a high rate of changes in its project operations. These changes not only often occur in the implementation (build) phase of a construction project, but it also happens in the planning (design) phase. In general, dealing with such uncertain circumstances means to have the possibility for failure in achieving the goals of a project. Even though changes and adjustments are common in this sector, it nevertheless will bring risks to the construction works. For example, the time, costs, and quality. Hence, a preventive system is needed with which can minimise the risks that may arise during the project activities. The objective of this research is to identify the caused factors of the risks on the construction business, and that to further suggest the applicable model as the preventive action of the risks. This study began with a detail review to seven risk indicators; Labour Risk (X1), Contractual Risk (X2), Human Resources Risk (X3), Design and Technology Risk (X4), Material and Tool Risk (X5), Implementation Risk (X6), and Force Majeure Risk (X7). This research was developed further using questionnaires and expert validation as the primary data, which furthermore analysed using analysis factors, descriptive analysis, and probability impact matric in order to determine the level of the risks. The risk level analysis resulted three variables as the top event (dominant risk), which are X1, X3 and X4. These findings were then advanced following Bowtie diagram and scenario analysis, hence suggested a modelling that described possible preventive and corrective strategies. Both the Bowtie diagram and scenario analysis are not only helpful as the guidance and warning, but also practical for the construction practitioners in managing the risk management and decision making for the construction project.
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