Route planning decisions: evaluating reliance on spatial heuristics under risk

ABSTRACT Spatial heuristics play a vital role in the decision-making process of route planning, but the crucial component of risk is often not considered. Whether in transportation logistics or military asset path planning, routes are evaluated in part based on the potential adverse outcomes of each route option. Drivers or dispatchers must consider the risks of inclement weather, adversarial threats, and unsafe roads, among other negative consequences that could negatively impact safe arrival to a destination. In a series of three studies, we replicated well-established route planning heuristics: preferences for shorter paths, initially straight paths, and avoiding regional crossings. We further demonstrated that when probabilistic risk outcomes are associated with paths, known risk probabilities had a dominating effect on decision-making.