基于GeoCLIM的气象干旱评估:以埃塞俄比亚奥罗米亚哈拉尔河东部和西部为例

A. Hirko, Gezehagn Mergia, Asalifew Nigussie, Tilahun Dandesa
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引用次数: 1

摘要

干旱是一种发生缓慢、危害巨大、代价高昂的自然现象,对一个国家或地区的经济、社会生活和环境造成严重影响。事实上,它是缓慢的设置和不太容易区分何时开始或何时结束,这使得现象难以研究(Hammouri和Naqa, 2007)。当一个地区的降雨量在一段较长时间内低于该地区的多年统计平均值时,就会出现干旱(Malaet al., 2014)。这是一个正常的气候事件,但其影响因地区而异。干旱有四种类型,即;气象干旱、农业干旱、水文干旱和社会经济干旱(Rathore, 2009)。气象干旱是可以立即观测到的降雨不足(Panu andSharma, 2002)。虽然干旱是自然发生的经常性极端事件(Wilhite, 1993;Shatanawi等人,2013),各种实证和建模研究证明,气候变化很可能在未来几十年增加世界某些地区干旱的程度、频率和持续时间(IPCC II, 2014, Degefu和Bewket, 2013)。近年来,地理信息系统(GIS)和GeoCLIM工具在研究不同类型的自然灾害和人为灾害方面发挥了关键作用。本研究着重介绍了geolim工具在干旱风险评估领域的应用。本研究利用GeoCLIM工具和基于气象的标准化降水指数(SPI)推导气象干旱面临的时空干旱风险区。对CV、SPI和平均降雨量异常进行分析。对SPI值进行插值,得到气象型干旱的空间格局。在研究期内,25%为极严重干旱年,75%为轻微至严重干旱年。研究结果表明,研究区域的东端和西端在年时间尺度上出现严重干旱和极严重干旱的频率较高。在海拔1520米、3275米以上的地区,非常严重的干旱更为明显。近年来干旱有增加的趋势。所得结果有助于制定干旱管理计划,并有助于揭示该地区的真实干旱情况。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Meteorological Drought Assessment using GeoCLIM: Case Study East and West Hararghe, Oromia, Ethiopia
Drought is a hazardous and costly natural phenomenon with slow on-set that has dreadful impacts on economy, social life and environment of a country or region. The fact that it is slow on-set and is not quite distinguishable in when is it started or when ended makes the phenomena difficult to study (Hammouri and Naqa, 2007). Drought appears when rainfall in a region is less than statistical multiyear average for that region over an extended time period (Malaet al., 2014). It is a normal climatic event but its effect varies from region to region. There are four types of drought namely; meteorological drought, agricultural drought, hydrological drought and socio economic drought (Rathore, 2009). Meteorological drought is deficiency of rainfall which can be observed immediately (Panu andSharma, 2002). Although drought is a natural occurring recurrent extreme event (Wilhite, 1993; Shatanawi et al., 2013), various empirical and modelling studies proved that climate change is very likely to increase the magnitude, frequency and duration of droughts over some parts of the world in the coming decades (IPCC II, 2014, Degefu and Bewket, 2013). In recent years, Geographical Information System (GIS) and GeoCLIM Tool have played a key role in studying different types if hazards either natural or man-made. This study stresses upon the use of GeoCLIM Tool in the field of Drought Risk assessment. In this study an effort has been made to derive spatial temporal drought risk areas facing as meteorological drought by GeoCLIM Tool and meteorological based Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Analysis was performed on CV, SPI, and average rainfall anomaly. SPI values were interpolated to get the spatial pattern of meteorological based drought. In the study period 25% was Very severe drought year while 75% were slight to severe drought categories. It was evident from the study that western and east tip of the study region were exposed to high frequency of severe and very severe droughts at annual time scale. Very severe droughts were more pronounced in areas where their altitude is above 1,520m3,275m masl. Increasing tendencies of drought were observed during recent year. The results obtained can be helpful for drought management plans and will help in revealing true drought situation in the area.
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