评估世界各国青少年和青壮年艾滋病毒流行的时空聚类

Hui-Peng Liew
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引用次数: 0

摘要

迄今为止,青少年和年轻人的艾滋病毒感染仍然是一个具有挑战性的公共卫生问题,特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲国家,但迄今为止还没有实证研究提供时空聚类分析来评估这一人群中艾滋病毒流行趋势。本研究试图通过研究15-24岁感染艾滋病毒的青少年和年轻人的流行情况如何聚集在一起,并估计感染艾滋病毒的个人人数和疾病控制举措的有效性,来填补研究中的空白。本研究的实证工作基于从世界银行数据库下载的艾滋病规划署估计数和从美国中央情报局获得的数据。调查结果表明,青少年和年轻人的艾滋病毒流行趋势因区域而异,这些人的艾滋病毒感染流行率不会激增,但会随着时间的推移而有所波动。如果当前的抗逆转录病毒治疗(ART)覆盖率、人口增长率和艾滋病相关死亡率在下一个十年继续下去,那么到2030年结束艾滋病这一公共卫生威胁的努力可能仍然是一项挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessing the spatial-temporal clustering of HIV prevalence among adolescents and young adults across countries around the world
Abstract To date, HIV infection among adolescents and young adults remains a challenging public health issue, especially for countries located in Sub-Saharan Africa but no empirical research known to date has provided a spatial- temporal cluster analyses to assess trends in HIV prevalence among this population. This study attempts fill in the gaps in research by examining how the prevalence of adolescents and young adults aged 15–24 living with HIV are clustered together and estimating the number of individuals infected with HIV and the effectiveness of disease control initiatives. The empirical work of this study is based on the UNAIDS estimates downloaded from the World Bank DataBank and data obtained from the United States Central Intelligence Agency. Findings suggest that trends in HIV prevalence among adolescents and young adults differed by region and the prevalence of HIV infection among these individuals will not surge but will somewhat fluctuate over time. Attempt to end AIDS as a public health threat by year 2030 can remain a challenge if the current antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, population growth rates, and AIDS-related death rates were to continue into the next decade.
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