特定年龄生育率的主成分模拟——德国家庭和社会政策对生育行为的影响

IF 0.4 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY
Patrizio Vanella, Philipp Deschermeier
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引用次数: 9

摘要

摘要:本文提出了一种模拟方法,通过对德国年龄特异性生育率(ASFRs)的主成分进行时间序列建模,间接估计德国年龄特异性生育率(ASFRs)和总生育率(TFR)。该模型考虑了ASFR时间序列之间的相互关系和自相关关系。通过引入政策变量来量化某些措施的效果。我们的方法适用于调查政治干预的潜在结果的概率敏感性分析。到2040年,总生育率可能略有上升。在中值情景中,TFR将从2016年的1.6增加到2040年的1.63,在最现实的政策情景下,TFR将在1.34至1.93之间,概率为75%。根据这一结果,生育率不太可能回落到20世纪90年代中期的极低水平。我们使用了四种简单的替代情景来说明政策变量变化对TFR的其他因素影响以及简单外推的结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Principal Component Simulation of Age-Specific Fertility – Impacts of Family and Social Policy on Reproductive Behavior in Germany
Abstract:This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The model accounts for cross-correlation and autocorrelation among the ASFR time series. The effects of certain measures are quantified through the introduction of policy variables. Our approach is applicable to probabilistic sensitivity analyses investigating the potential outcome of political intervention. A slight increase in the TFR is probable until 2040. In the median scenario, the TFR will increase from 1.6 in 2016 to 1.63 in 2040 and will be between 1.34 and 1.93 with a probability of 75% under the most realistic policy scenario. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of the mid-1990s. Four simple alternate scenarios are used to illustrate the estimated ceteris paribus effect of changes in our policy variables on the TFR as well as the results of simple extrapolations.
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来源期刊
Population Review
Population Review DEMOGRAPHY-
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
14.30%
发文量
3
期刊介绍: Population Review publishes scholarly research that covers a broad range of social science disciplines, including demography, sociology, social anthropology, socioenvironmental science, communication, and political science. The journal emphasizes empirical research and strives to advance knowledge on the interrelationships between demography and sociology. The editor welcomes submissions that combine theory with solid empirical research. Articles that are of general interest to population specialists are also desired. International in scope, the journal’s focus is not limited by geography. Submissions are encouraged from scholars in both the developing and developed world. Population Review publishes original articles and book reviews. Content is published online immediately after acceptance.
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