Autonomous Shuttles: What Do Users Expect and How Will They Use Them?

ABSTRACT The success of autonomous shuttle services and their ability to deliver on the myriad potential benefits of such services, depends on two issues: (1) willingness to use these services, and (2) the extent to which autonomous shuttle services can replace existing forms of transport, particularly car travel. This paper addresses these issues using survey data drawn from a pilot autonomous shuttle program. Descriptive statistics inform user preferences and expectations regarding autonomous shuttles. Logistic regression is used to specify correlates of willingness and frequency to ride the shuttle, and willingness to do so instead of using other forms of travel. Findings provide preliminary evidence for the existence of an enthusiastic early adopter population and also indicates that an autonomous shuttle service would likely be perceived as complementary to existing multi-modal systems in downtown areas. Additionally, regression results demonstrate that age, working downtown, and perceptions of bus service are associated with willingness to substitute the car for shuttle travel. Future research is needed once autonomous shuttle services become fully operational to understand if, in fact, early-adopters who are enthusiastic about autonomous vehicles continue to use autonomous shuttles once implemented, and to better understand the potential implications of autonomous transit systems in cities.