尼日利亚新养老金改革对国民储蓄的影响:经验证据

Werikechukwu J. Okweshine, H. Kanwanye
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引用次数: 0

摘要

该研究使用了一个简单的凯恩斯宏观经济框架来研究2007-2016年尼日利亚新的养老金改革计划对国民储蓄的影响。相关变量的年度数据来自二手来源,包括国家养老金委员会(Pencom)、2016年国家统计局、2016年世界银行国别数据和2016年尼日利亚中央银行公报。采用普通最小二乘(OLS)回归技术进行分析。实证结果表明,养老金资产对国民储蓄具有显著的负向影响,因此,养老金资产的增加阻碍了尼日利亚国民储蓄的增长。这种情况可以用政府持续向从旧养老金计划过渡到新养老金计划的个人支付的养老金债务来解释。结果还表明,收入和存款利率对储蓄有显著的正影响。最后,预算赤字和国民储蓄呈负相关关系,前者对后者有显著影响。该研究建议,政府应利用税收为养老金债务融资;养老基金应该投资于基础设施建设。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of Nigeria’s New Pensions Reform on National Savings: Empirical Evidence
The study used a simple Keynesian macroeconomic framework to examine the effect of the new pension reform scheme on national savings in Nigeria during 2007-2016. Annual data of the relevant variables were obtained from secondary sources thatinclude the National Pension Commission (Pencom), National Bureau of Statistics 2016, World Bank country data 2016, and the Central Bank of Nigeria bulletin 2016. The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression technique was utilized for the analyses.Empirical results show that pension assets have a significant negative effect on national saving, hence, an increase in pension assets hinders the growth of national savings in Nigeria. This situation can be explained by the continuous pension debtpaid by the government to individuals who transited from the old to the new pension scheme. The results also show that income and deposit rates have a significant positive impact on savings. Finally, budget deficit and national savings are inversely related,with the former having a significant influence on the latter. The study recommends that the government should finance pension debt using tax; and that the pension fund should be invested in infrastructural development.
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