评估极端事件恢复的压力测试

IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
M. Plodinec
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在过去的十年中,社区越来越意识到他们所面临的风险。它们受到自然灾害的威胁,而气候变化和陆地运动可能会加剧这种威胁。日益增长的全球化使高度传染性疾病的迅速传播更有可能造成流行病。社会不和谐滋生了自身的威胁,其中最重要的是导致恐怖主义的激进意识形态的传播。技术变革的加速也带来了社会和经济风险。这种不断扩大的风险范围给每个社区都提出了一个难题——社区对面临的极端事件有多大的适应能力。在本文中,我们提出了一种新的方法来回答这个问题。它是基于美国和其他国家监管机构要求对金融机构进行的压力测试。它通过将“资本”的概念扩展到金融之外,以包括社区拥有的其他“资本”(例如,人力,社会)来概括压力测试。通过使用这种方法,社区可以确定其资本的哪些投资最有可能提高其复原力。我们提供了一个使用该方法的示例,并讨论了其潜在的好处。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Stress Testing to Assess Recovery from Extreme Events
Abstract Over the last decade, communities have become increasingly aware of the risks they face. They are threatened by natural disasters, which may be exacerbated by climate change and the movement of land masses. Growing globalization has made a pandemic due to the rapid spread of highly infectious diseases ever more likely. Societal discord breeds its own threats, not the least of which is the spread of radical ideologies giving rise to terrorism. The accelerating rate of technological change has bred its own social and economic risks. This widening spectrum of risk poses a difficult question to every community – how resilient will the community be to the extreme events it faces. In this paper, we present a new approach to answering that question. It is based on the stress testing of financial institutions required by regulators in the United States and elsewhere. It generalizes stress testing by expanding the concept of “capital” beyond finance to include the other “capitals” (e.g., human, social) possessed by a community. Through use of this approach, communities can determine which investments of its capitals are most likely to improve its resilience. We provide an example of using the approach, and discuss its potential benefits.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
12.50%
发文量
11
期刊介绍: The Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management publishes original, innovative, and timely articles describing research or practice in the fields of homeland security and emergency management. JHSEM publishes not only peer-reviewed articles, but also news and communiqués from researchers and practitioners, and book/media reviews. Content comes from a broad array of authors representing many professions, including emergency management, engineering, political science and policy, decision science, and health and medicine, as well as from emergency management and homeland security practitioners.
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