A novel immunogenomic signature to predict prognosis and reveal immune infiltration characteristics in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Abstract Background The immune response in the tumor microenvironment (TME) plays a crucial role in cancer progression and recurrence. We aimed to develop an immune-related gene (IRG) signature to improve prognostic predictive power and reveal the immune infiltration characteristics of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Methods The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) PDAC was used to construct a prognostic model as a training cohort. The International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases were set as validation datasets. Prognostic genes were screened by using univariate Cox regression. Then, a novel optimal prognostic model was developed by using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression. Cell type identification by estimating the relative subsets of RNA transcripts (CIBERSORT) and estimation of stromal and immune cells in malignant tumors using expression data (ESTIMATE) algorithms were used to characterize tumor immune infiltrating patterns. The tumor immune dysfunction and exclusion (TIDE) algorithm was used to predict immunotherapy responsiveness. Results A prognostic signature based on five IRGs (MET, ERAP2, IL20RB, EREG, and SHC2) was constructed in TCGA-PDAC and comprehensively validated in ICGC and GEO cohorts. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that this signature had an independent prognostic value. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve at 1, 3, and 5 years of survival were 0.724, 0.702, and 0.776, respectively. We further demonstrated that our signature has better prognostic performance than recently published ones and is superior to traditional clinical factors such as grade and tumor node metastasis classification (TNM) stage in predicting survival. Moreover, we found higher abundance of CD8+ T cells and lower M2-like macrophages in the low-risk group of TCGA-PDAC, and predicted a higher proportion of immunotherapeutic responders in the low-risk group. Conclusions We constructed an optimal prognostic model which had independent prognostic value and was comprehensively validated in external PDAC databases. Additionally, this five-genes signature could predict immune infiltration characteristics. Moreover, the signature helped stratify PDAC patients who might be more responsive to immunotherapy.