La relación comercial de México con Estados Unidos y China en el siglo xxi: efectos en la integración local del aparato productivo mexicano

The article studies the commercial integration of Mexico with the United States and China and its effects on the local integration of the Mexican productive apparatus. Information is presented for 220 industrial classes, covering the period 2003-2014. Based on different typologies, it is shown how China's entry into the WTO in 2001 deepened the import dependence of the Mexican manufacturing apparatus, both in the export industries and domestic market industries. Among other outcomes, China has directly displaced the United States as the main importer in 152 industries operating in Mexico, of which 62 are export oriented and 87% of them are destined for the United States. This phenomenon reveals the emergence of an industrial organization that has been established between Mexican industries with China and the United States, with adverse effects in local productive linkages. The remaining 90 industries have strong local production chains and are relevant in employment generation; in these industries, the massive entry of Chinese imports has displaced investment, employment and local supply. Current macroeconomic and mesoeconomic policy has encouraged this special kind of local-global integration.