腰痛病假预后预测模型的建立。

Q1 Medicine

International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI:10.1097/JOM.0000000000001749

Lisa C. Bosman, J. Twisk, A. Geraedts, M. Heymans

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引用次数: 7

摘要

目的:建立下腰背痛(LBP)病假的预后预测模型。方法对103名因非特异性腰痛和椎间盘突出而患病的员工进行队列研究。基于问卷调查数据和180天的挂号病假数据建立预测模型。结果随访中仍有31名员工(30.1%)因腰痛发病。前向选择程序产生了一个具有灾变、肌肉骨骼负荷和残疾的模型。解释方差为27.3%，校正充分，判别公平，AUC = 0.761 [IQR: 0.755-0.770]。结论本研究建立的预测模型能较好地预测180天后腰痛病假，可用于因腰痛而患病的员工。

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Development of Prediction Model for the Prognosis of Sick Leave Due to Low Back Pain.

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for the prognosis of sick leave due to low back pain (LBP). METHODS This is a cohort study with 103 employees sick-listed due to non-specific LBP and spinal disc herniation. A prediction model was developed based on questionnaire data and registered sick leave data with follow up of 180 days. RESULTS At follow up 31 (30.1%) employees were still sick-listed due to LBP. Forward selection procedure resulted in a model with: catastrophizing, musculoskeletal work load, and disability. The explained variance was 27.3%, calibration was adequate and discrimination was fair with AUC = 0.761 [IQR: 0.755-0.770]. CONCLUSION The prediction model of this study can adequately predict LBP sick leave after 180 days and could be used for employees sick listed due LBP.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

13.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

18 weeks