Microcystin Shows Thresholds and Hierarchical Structure With Physicochemical Properties at Lake Fayetteville, Arkansas, May Through September 2020

Highlights Despite little to no dissolved nutrient supply in surface water, harmful algal blooms are sustained throughout the 2020 growing season. Sediment phosphorus release was high in a lake that has annual harmful algal blooms, and it is an important piece of the watershed management puzzle. Thresholds and hierarchical structure with individual physicochemical properties and pigment fluorescence at this lake explain a large portion of microcystin variability. Abstract. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) in freshwaters are a global concern, and research has focused on the nutrient drivers of cyanobacterial growth and toxin production. We explored the importance of nutrients on sustained cyanobacterial HABs producing measurable microcystin at Lake Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA. The specific objectives were to (1) quantify sediment phosphorus (P) flux and estimate potential equilibrium P concentrations (EPC0) in July 2020, (2) assess water quality conditions in the lake from March through September 2020, and (3) evaluate physicochemical thresholds (or change points, CPs) and hierarchical structure with total microcystin concentrations. The sediments were a potential P source under both oxic and anoxic conditions, and the SRP concentrations in the lake water were continuously less than the EPC0 estimated for bottom sediment (~0.03 mg L-1); sediments are likely a potential P source for cyanobacterial HABs at Lake Fayetteville. The physicochemical changes at Lake Fayetteville over the 2020 growing season were typical of small, hypereutrophic reservoirs, with low biomass in winter when nutrient supply was greatest and the greatest cyanobacterial growth and microcystin toxin as nutrient supply diminished into the growing season. Microcystin concentrations were elevated above 1 µg L-1 from mid-June through mid-August 2020, and most physicochemical parameters in this study showed thresholds or change points with microcystin. Hierarchical structure existed with total microcystin concentrations, showing the potential importance of cyanobacterial biomass, N supply, and total P on elevated microcystin. Nutrients and algal pigment raw fluorescence explained 83% of the variation in total microcystin concentrations at Lake Fayetteville during the 2020 growing season. Nutrients (both N and P) from external and internal sources are likely important drivers of these blooms and toxicity at Lake Fayetteville. Keywords: Harmful Algal Blooms, Nutrient Drivers, Sediment Phosphorus Release, Water Quality.