Forecasting the influence of traffic demand flexibility on the effectiveness of road investments – analysis results for the krakow city ring road system

The paper is devoted to simulation analysis of the phenomenon often observed in contemporary urban areas, i.e. the so-called induced traffic resulting from the improvement of travel conditions in the road network. On the basis of analyzes carried out in the simulation model of Krakow, it was shown, as exemplified by the postulated changes in the urban peripheral system of Krakow – i.e. the construction of the western section of the so-called 3rd city ring road and further narrowing of the so-called 2nd city ring road – the appearance of additional car traffic may affect the received image of the city’s transport system. Taking into account the flexibility of road demand has a significant impact on the resultant parameters of the network operation and can significantly change the final assessment of the effectiveness of a given road investment – and also provide important premises for a long-term strategy of shaping the city road system.