往返效应:内生运输成本与国际贸易

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Journal-Applied Economics Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI:10.1257/app.20190721

Woan Foong Wong

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引用次数: 30

摘要

集装箱船在固定的出发地和目的地之间往返，导致运费呈负相关。我研究了这种往返效应对国际贸易和贸易政策的影响。我确定了这种影响，并开发了一种工具，利用它来估计运输成本对贸易的影响。我在一个定量模型中模拟了反事实进口关税的增加，并量化了内生性运输成本对这一效应的重要性:外生运输成本模型预测了保护主义政策对贸易平衡的改善，而往返模型则发现了相反的结果。(jel d22, f13, f14, l92, r41)

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The Round Trip Effect: Endogenous Transport Costs and International Trade

Container ships travel between a fixed set of origins and destinations in round trips, inducing a negative correlation in their freight rates. I study the implications of this round trip effect on international trade and trade policy. I identify this effect and develop an instrument using it to estimate the impact of transport costs on trade. I simulate counterfactual import tariff increases in a quantitative model and quantify the importance of endogenizing transport costs with respect to this effect: an exogenous transport costs model predicts a trade balance improvement from protectionist policies, while the round trip model finds the opposite. (JEL D22, F13, F14, L92, R41)

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来源期刊

American Economic Journal-Applied Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

9.10

自引率

1.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： American Economic Journal: Applied Economics publishes papers covering a range of topics in applied economics, with a focus on empirical microeconomic issues. In particular, we welcome papers on labor economics, development microeconomics, health, education, demography, empirical corporate finance, empirical studies of trade, and empirical behavioral economics.