Marcos Tadeu Caputi Lélis , Eduarda Martins Correa da Silveira , André Moreira Cunha , Andrés Ernesto Ferrari Haines
{"title":"巴西经济增长与国际收支约束:1995-2013年分析","authors":"Marcos Tadeu Caputi Lélis , Eduarda Martins Correa da Silveira , André Moreira Cunha , Andrés Ernesto Ferrari Haines","doi":"10.1016/j.econ.2017.06.002","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The purpose of this work is to analyze the balance-of-payments-constrained growth in Brazil considering Thirwall’s Law (1979). To this end, we estimate export and import demand functions using two econometric models: vector error correction and structural state space model for the period of 1995–2013. Our results suggest that the balance of payments is a constraint to the Brazilian economic growth, given: (i) the ratio between exports and imports income elasticities; (ii) the low sensitivity of exports to changes in the real exchange rate; and (iii) the evidence that exports are more sensitive to alterations in commodities prices than to changes in the real exchange rate.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100389,"journal":{"name":"EconomiA","volume":"19 1","pages":"Pages 38-56"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.econ.2017.06.002","citationCount":"9","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint in Brazil: An analysis of the 1995–2013 period\",\"authors\":\"Marcos Tadeu Caputi Lélis , Eduarda Martins Correa da Silveira , André Moreira Cunha , Andrés Ernesto Ferrari Haines\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.econ.2017.06.002\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The purpose of this work is to analyze the balance-of-payments-constrained growth in Brazil considering Thirwall’s Law (1979). To this end, we estimate export and import demand functions using two econometric models: vector error correction and structural state space model for the period of 1995–2013. Our results suggest that the balance of payments is a constraint to the Brazilian economic growth, given: (i) the ratio between exports and imports income elasticities; (ii) the low sensitivity of exports to changes in the real exchange rate; and (iii) the evidence that exports are more sensitive to alterations in commodities prices than to changes in the real exchange rate.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":100389,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"EconomiA\",\"volume\":\"19 1\",\"pages\":\"Pages 38-56\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.econ.2017.06.002\",\"citationCount\":\"9\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"EconomiA\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1517758016301266\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"EconomiA","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1517758016301266","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint in Brazil: An analysis of the 1995–2013 period
The purpose of this work is to analyze the balance-of-payments-constrained growth in Brazil considering Thirwall’s Law (1979). To this end, we estimate export and import demand functions using two econometric models: vector error correction and structural state space model for the period of 1995–2013. Our results suggest that the balance of payments is a constraint to the Brazilian economic growth, given: (i) the ratio between exports and imports income elasticities; (ii) the low sensitivity of exports to changes in the real exchange rate; and (iii) the evidence that exports are more sensitive to alterations in commodities prices than to changes in the real exchange rate.