Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning described by Langevin dynamics

Abstract. Using a machine learning technique, collapse trajectories of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from climate models of intermediate complexity are fitted to a simple model based on the Langevin equation. A total of six parameters are sufficient to quantitatively describe the collapses seen in these simulations under a freshwater forcing. Reversing the freshwater forcing results in asymmetric behaviour that is less well captured and would require a more complicated model.