根据气候变化预测埃及三个沙漠省份的玉米和蚕豆作物产量

Hanan W. Ghaly
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The results of the ARIMA model forecast showed that there was an expected increase in the gap of maize crop, in Egypt, from about 10,958 thousand tons in 2026 to about 12,223 thousand tons in 2030, an increase of about 30.1 % in 2019 and an annual average about 11,590 thousand tons during the period (2026-2030). While, the self-sufficiency of maize in Egypt decreased from about 38.4% in 2026 to about 34.5% in 2030, an estimated decrease of about 9.9% for 2019. The results of the forecast showed that there was an increase in the gap of faba bean crop in Egypt from about 2,495.5 thousand tons in 2026 to about 3,783.4 thousand tons in 2030, an increase of about 337.4 % over 2011. The self-sufficiency of faba bean crop in Egypt was shown to decrease from about 10.9 % in 2026 to about 1.5 % during 2030, by an estimated decrease of about 85.4 % over 2019. The forecast results showed a decrease in the area under cultivation from about 0.06 thousand acres in 2026 to about 0.001 thousand acres in 2030, an estimated 98.9 % decrease from 2018. The forecast results also showed that the area cultivated with faba bean crop in the New Valley Governorate decreased from about 1.22 thousand acres in 2026 to about 0.20 thousand acres in 2030 with an estimated decrease of about 89.1 %. The production decreased from about 1.54 thousand tons in 2026 to about 0.36 thousand tons in 2030, an estimated decrease of about 84.5 % from 2019. In addition, the production of maize in North Sinai Governorate decreased from about 0.07 thousand tons in 2026 to about 0.01 thousand tons in 2030, an estimated 8.3 % decrease from 2019. The forecast of the maize crop production with climate change not taken into consideration, showed a decrease in production of maize crop in North Sinai governorate. While forecasting the production of maize crop with climate change in consideration, the most influential element studied was higher temperature, which was found to increase on average by one degree Celsius during the crop growth season, which resulted in a decrease in production by about 22.6 %. In case of forecasting the production of faba bean crop, the results showed a decrease in production of country beans in the New Valley Governorate with climate changes not taken into consideration. While, forecasting the production of faba bean crop taking into consideration Hanan W. Ghaly ................................................................................................................ 68 climate changes, where the most productive elements (the higher temperature) were studied, it was found that an increase in the average temperature by one degree Celsius during the crop growth season would result in a decrease in production by about 16%. Recommendations: The research recommends the horizontal and vertical expansion by increasing the area cultivated with the maize crop in the desert Governorates of North Sinai, and beans crop in the Governorate of the New Valley. This is to fill the gap between production and consumption, where a decrease in the proportion of self-sufficiency and an increase of the imports of maize and faba bean crops is forecasted by 2030. 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While, the self-sufficiency of maize in Egypt decreased from about 38.4% in 2026 to about 34.5% in 2030, an estimated decrease of about 9.9% for 2019. The results of the forecast showed that there was an increase in the gap of faba bean crop in Egypt from about 2,495.5 thousand tons in 2026 to about 3,783.4 thousand tons in 2030, an increase of about 337.4 % over 2011. The self-sufficiency of faba bean crop in Egypt was shown to decrease from about 10.9 % in 2026 to about 1.5 % during 2030, by an estimated decrease of about 85.4 % over 2019. The forecast results showed a decrease in the area under cultivation from about 0.06 thousand acres in 2026 to about 0.001 thousand acres in 2030, an estimated 98.9 % decrease from 2018. The forecast results also showed that the area cultivated with faba bean crop in the New Valley Governorate decreased from about 1.22 thousand acres in 2026 to about 0.20 thousand acres in 2030 with an estimated decrease of about 89.1 %. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

谷物和豆类作物,特别是玉米和蚕豆,是战略作物,因为它们是人类食物的主要来源。然而,由于生产无法满足日益增长的国内需求,自给率仍然很低。这反映在较低的自给率上,玉米作物自给率从2017年的46.1%下降到2019年的42.6%,蚕豆作物自给率从2017年的30.7%下降到2019年的10.3%。国家依靠进口来弥补粮食缺口,玉米作物进口了约940万吨,蚕豆作物进口了86.5万吨。本研究旨在根据气候变化确定埃及国家和三个沙漠省份的玉米和蚕豆作物的现状和未来前景。ARIMA模型预测结果显示,埃及玉米作物缺口预计将从2026年的约1095.8万吨增加到2030年的约1222.3万吨,2019年增长约30.1%,2026-2030年期间年均约1159万吨。而埃及的玉米自给率从2026年的约38.4%下降到2030年的约34.5%,2019年估计下降约9.9%。预测结果显示,埃及蚕豆产量缺口从2026年的约249.55万吨增加到2030年的约378.34万吨,比2011年增加约337.4%。埃及蚕豆作物的自给率从2026年的约10.9%下降到2030年的约1.5%,估计比2019年下降约85.4%。预测结果显示,种植面积从2026年的约0.06万英亩减少到2030年的约0.001万英亩,估计比2018年减少98.9%。预测结果还显示,新谷省种植蚕豆作物的面积从2026年的约122万英亩减少到2030年的约0.20万英亩,估计减少约89.1%。产量从2026年的约154万吨下降到2030年的约0.36万吨,估计比2019年减少约84.5%。此外,北西奈省的玉米产量从2026年的约0.07万吨下降到2030年的约0.01万吨,估计比2019年下降8.3%。对未考虑气候变化的玉米作物产量预测显示,北西奈省玉米作物产量下降。在考虑气候变化对玉米作物产量进行预测时,研究的影响最大的因素是温度升高,发现作物生长季节温度平均升高1摄氏度,导致产量下降约22.6%。在预测蚕豆作物产量方面,结果显示,在没有考虑气候变化的情况下,新谷省的乡村蚕豆产量有所下降。蚕豆,预测生产作物考虑哈难w·波尔 ................................................................................................................68气候变化,其中最具生产力的因素(较高的温度)进行了研究,发现在作物生长季节平均温度每增加1摄氏度将导致产量下降约16%。建议:该研究建议通过增加北西奈沙漠省的玉米作物种植面积和新山谷省的豆类作物种植面积来进行水平和垂直扩张。这是为了填补生产和消费之间的差距,预计到2030年,自给自足的比例将下降,玉米和蚕豆作物的进口将增加。与此同时,农业研究支出也在增加,特别是关于提高生产力和设计能够适应气候变化的新品种的研究,以及减少用水量和耐旱的品种的研究。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
FORECASTING THE PRODUCTION OF MAIZE AND FABA BEAN CROPS IN THREE DESERT GOVERNORATES IN EGYPT IN THE LIGHT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Grain and pulse crops, especially maize and faba beans, are strategic crops because of their importance as a major source of human food. However, the rate of self-sufficiency is still low as production is unable to fulfill the growing domestic demand. This is reflected in the low selfsufficiency rate, where the maize crop decreased from 46.1 % in 2017 to 42.6 % in 2019, and the faba bean crop from 30.7 % in 2017 to 10.3 % in 2019. The state resorted to imports to bridge the food gap, which amounted to about 9.4 million tons for the maize crop, 865 thousand tons for the faba bean crop. This research aimed to identify the current situation and the future prospects of maize and faba bean crops, at the national and three desert governorates levels in Egypt in light of climate change. The results of the ARIMA model forecast showed that there was an expected increase in the gap of maize crop, in Egypt, from about 10,958 thousand tons in 2026 to about 12,223 thousand tons in 2030, an increase of about 30.1 % in 2019 and an annual average about 11,590 thousand tons during the period (2026-2030). While, the self-sufficiency of maize in Egypt decreased from about 38.4% in 2026 to about 34.5% in 2030, an estimated decrease of about 9.9% for 2019. The results of the forecast showed that there was an increase in the gap of faba bean crop in Egypt from about 2,495.5 thousand tons in 2026 to about 3,783.4 thousand tons in 2030, an increase of about 337.4 % over 2011. The self-sufficiency of faba bean crop in Egypt was shown to decrease from about 10.9 % in 2026 to about 1.5 % during 2030, by an estimated decrease of about 85.4 % over 2019. The forecast results showed a decrease in the area under cultivation from about 0.06 thousand acres in 2026 to about 0.001 thousand acres in 2030, an estimated 98.9 % decrease from 2018. The forecast results also showed that the area cultivated with faba bean crop in the New Valley Governorate decreased from about 1.22 thousand acres in 2026 to about 0.20 thousand acres in 2030 with an estimated decrease of about 89.1 %. The production decreased from about 1.54 thousand tons in 2026 to about 0.36 thousand tons in 2030, an estimated decrease of about 84.5 % from 2019. In addition, the production of maize in North Sinai Governorate decreased from about 0.07 thousand tons in 2026 to about 0.01 thousand tons in 2030, an estimated 8.3 % decrease from 2019. The forecast of the maize crop production with climate change not taken into consideration, showed a decrease in production of maize crop in North Sinai governorate. While forecasting the production of maize crop with climate change in consideration, the most influential element studied was higher temperature, which was found to increase on average by one degree Celsius during the crop growth season, which resulted in a decrease in production by about 22.6 %. In case of forecasting the production of faba bean crop, the results showed a decrease in production of country beans in the New Valley Governorate with climate changes not taken into consideration. While, forecasting the production of faba bean crop taking into consideration Hanan W. Ghaly ................................................................................................................ 68 climate changes, where the most productive elements (the higher temperature) were studied, it was found that an increase in the average temperature by one degree Celsius during the crop growth season would result in a decrease in production by about 16%. Recommendations: The research recommends the horizontal and vertical expansion by increasing the area cultivated with the maize crop in the desert Governorates of North Sinai, and beans crop in the Governorate of the New Valley. This is to fill the gap between production and consumption, where a decrease in the proportion of self-sufficiency and an increase of the imports of maize and faba bean crops is forecasted by 2030. This is along with increasing agricultural research spending, especially research on increased productivity and devising new varieties capable of adapting to climate change, and varieties that reduce water consumption and drought-tolerance.
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