The Short-Term Impact of Crime on School Enrollment and School Choice: Evidence from El Salvador

ABSTRACT:This paper employs variations in crime rates, attributed to an unprecedented countrywide truce between gangs in El Salvador in 2012, to evaluate the short-term impact of homicides and extortions on the education choices of Salvadoran households. Results reveal that the reduction in homicide rates due to the truce were associated with a migration within the education system, from public to private institutions, among boys aged fifteen to twenty-two years. The fluctuations in homicide rates were also associated with a lower school attendance for girls aged seven to fourteen years, especially due to a lower public school enrollment. No significant association between fluctuations in extortion rates and education choices was observed.