1900-2018年全球平均海平面预算年度误报的低频波动

IF 0.9 Q4 REMOTE SENSING
H. Iz
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引用次数: 2

摘要

日月强迫的次谐波和超谐波是早期研究证实的具有长期记录的潮量站观测到的海平面自然变化的代用物。这项研究还在1900-2018年期间全球平均海平面预算的嘈杂年度错误关闭中发现了它们的特征。对年度误闭的分析显示,时间线性系统误差为0.08±0.02 mm/年,这不能用预算成分来解释。该估计具有统计学意义(α = 0.05),但幅度较小,仅占年度误闭变化的11%(调整r2)。与此同时,每年的误闭在统计上也具有显著的恒定偏差,可达- 12.2±0.9 mm,这可归因于缺乏全球平均海平面预算分量的共同基准定义。模拟太阳-太阳起源的低频变化,结合趋势和恒定的偏差参数,减少了误闭的可变性。考虑到它们的影响,可以解释每年误闭的波动的50%(调整后的r2),而如果没有它们,则可以解释11%。此外,年度全球预算结束评估中未模拟的低频变化有可能混淆对最近由人为因素引起的具有统计意义的均匀全球海平面加速的探测。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Low-frequency fluctuations in the yearly misclosures of the global mean sea level budget during 1900–2018
Abstract Sub- and super-harmonics of luni-solar forcing are proxies for the natural variations in sea levels observed at tide gauge stations with long records as demonstrated in earlier studies. This study also identified their signatures in the noisy yearly misclosures of the global mean sea level budget for the period 1900–2018. The analyses of the yearly misclosures revealed a temporal linear systematic error of 0.08 ± 0.02 mm/year, which is not explained by the budget components. The estimate is statistically significant (α = 0.05) but small in magnitude and accounts for only 11% (adjusted R 2) of the variations in the yearly misclosures. Meanwhile, the yearly misclosures have also a statistically significant constant bias as large as −12.2 ± 0.9 mm, which can be attributed to the lack of a common datum definition for the global mean sea level budget components. Modeling the low-frequency changes of luni-solar origin together with a trend and constant bias parameters reduces variability in the misclosures. Accounting for their effects explains 50% (adjusted R 2) of the fluctuations in the yearly misclosures compared to the 11% if they are not. In addition, unmodeled low-frequency variations in the yearly global budget closure assessments have the propensity of confounding the detection of a statistically significant recent uniform global sea level acceleration triggered by anthropogenic contributors.
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来源期刊
Journal of Geodetic Science
Journal of Geodetic Science REMOTE SENSING-
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
3
审稿时长
14 weeks
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