Transition politics and the prospects of democratic consolidation in South Africa

ABSTRACT The paper explores the prospects of the fledgling South African democracy to stabilize into a lasting one. On the assumption, offered by Karl & Schmitter, that the mode of transition is a significant determinant of democratic consolidation, a conceptual model developed by them is used to analyze the type and possibilities of the South African transition. Characterizing this transition as a combination of “pacting” and “reform” provides a mixed type without clear and simple possibilities. In terms of the authors’ conclusions, such a mode simultaneously refers to the most successful (elite‐driven) and least successful (mass‐driven) types. These conclusions are considered within the South African context.