{"title":"关于利用日内收益预测秘鲁股市每日波动风险的说明","authors":"M. Zevallos","doi":"10.18800/economia.201902.004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper I present a model to forecast the daily Value at Risk (VaR) of the Peruvian stock market (measured through the general index of the Lima Stock Exchange: the IGBVL) based on intraday (high-frequency) data. Daily volatility is estimated using realised volatility and I adopted a regression quantile approach to calculate one-step predicted VaR values. The results suggest that the realised volatility is a useful measure to explain the Peruvian stock market volatility and I obtained sound results using quantile regression for risk estimation.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A Note on Forecasting Daily Peruvian Stock Market Volatility Risk Using Intraday Returns\",\"authors\":\"M. Zevallos\",\"doi\":\"10.18800/economia.201902.004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In this paper I present a model to forecast the daily Value at Risk (VaR) of the Peruvian stock market (measured through the general index of the Lima Stock Exchange: the IGBVL) based on intraday (high-frequency) data. Daily volatility is estimated using realised volatility and I adopted a regression quantile approach to calculate one-step predicted VaR values. The results suggest that the realised volatility is a useful measure to explain the Peruvian stock market volatility and I obtained sound results using quantile regression for risk estimation.\",\"PeriodicalId\":100390,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economía Informa\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2019-10-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economía Informa\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.201902.004\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economía Informa","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.201902.004","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
A Note on Forecasting Daily Peruvian Stock Market Volatility Risk Using Intraday Returns
In this paper I present a model to forecast the daily Value at Risk (VaR) of the Peruvian stock market (measured through the general index of the Lima Stock Exchange: the IGBVL) based on intraday (high-frequency) data. Daily volatility is estimated using realised volatility and I adopted a regression quantile approach to calculate one-step predicted VaR values. The results suggest that the realised volatility is a useful measure to explain the Peruvian stock market volatility and I obtained sound results using quantile regression for risk estimation.
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