关于俄罗斯联邦肾综合征出血热发病率动态的周期性表现

P. Mochalkin, Mochalkin, L. A. Farvazova, N. V. Popov, Mikhail Yurevich Devyatkov
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摘要

关于1957-2021年期间俄罗斯联邦HFRS发病周期为49年的假设得到证实。已确定的49年HFRS发病周期包括2个阶段:持续20年(1967-1986)的低发病阶段和持续约29年(1987-2016)的高发病阶段。值得注意的是,自2017年以来,俄罗斯联邦出现了另一个HFRS低发病率阶段,这一阶段可能会持续到2036年。考虑到当前低发病率阶段,俄罗斯联邦2022年HFRS发病率预测指标为5.35±1.34 / 10万人口,实际水平为4.73 / 10万人口。已查明巴什科尔托斯坦共和国(r = 0.87)、鞑靼斯坦共和国(r = 0.88)和俄罗斯联邦境内的HFRS发病动态高度相似。报告概述说,在俄罗斯联邦49年的HFRS发病周期中,确定的20年和29年阶段通常由普马拉病毒自然疫源地的流行活动决定,并且在持续时间上与俄罗斯联邦欧洲部分的气候变化波相吻合。关键词:HFRS发病的周期性;HFRS发病地区地方性流行病学;巴什科尔托斯坦共和国;
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On the cyclical manifestations of the dynamics of the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in the Russian Federation
The hypothesis about a 49-year cycle in the incidence of HFRS in the Russian Federation in the period of 1957–2021 is substantiated. It has been established that the identified 49-year HFRS incidence cycle consists of 2 phases: a low incidence phase lasting 20 years (1967–1986) and a high incidence phase lasting approximately 29 years (1987–2016). It is of note that since 2017, there has been another phase of low incidence of HFRS in the Russian Federation, which, presumably, will continue until 2036. The prognostic indicator of the HFRS incidence for 2022 in the Russian Federation, obtained taking into account the current phase of low incidence, was 5.35?±?1.34 per 100 thousand population, with an actual level of 4.73 per 100 thousand population. A high degree of similarity in the dynamics of the HFRS incidence has been identified for the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan (r = 0.87), the Republic of Tatarstan (r = 0.88) and the Russian Federation. It is outlined that the identified 20- and 29-year phases of the 49-year HFRS incidence cycle in the Russian Federation are generally determined by the epidemic activity of natural foci of the Puumala virus and coincide in duration with climate change waves in the European part of the Russian Federation. Keywords: сyclical nature of HFRS incidence, enzootic as regards HFRS territory, the Republic of Bashkortostan, epidemiological forecast, climate change.
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