探讨在涉及车辆的踏板车式电动自行车碰撞中,骑行行为和道路状况对送货骑手严重程度的异质性影响。

IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Jingfeng Ma, Qi Cao, Gang Ren, Yuanxiang Yang, Yue Deng, Jingzhi Li
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引用次数: 0

摘要

送货骑手比其他交通参与者更容易受到伤害,尤其是在涉及车辆的送货碰撞中。本研究旨在基于4251起电动自行车(SSEB)碰撞事故,确定不同因素中未观察到的异质性。首先,从七个角度选取了一些潜在因素,并对其时空特征进行了分析。其次,提出了一种潜在类聚类方法,通过最大化聚类之间的异构性来阐明最优聚类数量。第三,开发了整个数据集和子数据集的部分比例优势(PPO)模型,以探索不同集群之间的异质性。此外,边际效应被用来量化异质性。研究结果表明,不同集群之间存在显著的异质性,尤其是在骑行行为和路况方面。几个因素只会显著影响特定的聚类,而不会影响整个数据集。子数据集的PPO模型在识别潜在的异构性方面表现更好。研究结果还强调了驾驶行为和道路状况在交付SSEB车辆碰撞中的更大作用。前五大影响因素是闯红灯、使用手机、车辆类型、倒车和自行车道(其最大边际效应超过+35%)。这些发现可能有助于减轻相关的坠机损失。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Exploring the heterogeneous effects of riding behaviours and road conditions on delivery rider severities in scooter-style electric bicycle crashes involving vehicles.

Delivery riders are more vulnerable than other traffic participants, especially in vehicle-involved delivery crashes. This study aims at identifying the unobserved heterogeneities in different factors, based on 4251 vehicle-scooter-style electric bicycle (SSEB) crashes. First, some potential factors are selected from seven perspectives, and the spatiotemporal characteristics are analysed. Second, a latent class clustering method is proposed to clarify the optimal number of clusters by maximizing the heterogeneities across clusters. Third, partial proportional odds (PPO) models for the whole dataset and sub-datasets are developed to explore the heterogeneities across various clusters. Besides, marginal effects are implemented to quantify the heterogeneities. The results evidence that there are remarkable heterogeneities across different clusters, especially in riding behaviours and road conditions. Several factors only significantly affect particular clusters but not the whole dataset. The PPO models for the sub-datasets perform better in identifying the underlying heterogeneities. The results also highlight the greater roles of riding behaviours and road conditions in delivery SSEB-vehicle crashes. The top five influencing factors are running red light, using cell phones, vehicle type, reverse riding and bike lane (their maximum marginal effects exceeding +35%). The findings could support to mitigate the related crash losses.

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来源期刊
International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
13.00%
发文量
48
期刊介绍: International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion (formerly Injury Control and Safety Promotion) publishes articles concerning all phases of injury control, including prevention, acute care and rehabilitation. Specifically, this journal will publish articles that for each type of injury: •describe the problem •analyse the causes and risk factors •discuss the design and evaluation of solutions •describe the implementation of effective programs and policies The journal encompasses all causes of fatal and non-fatal injury, including injuries related to: •transport •school and work •home and leisure activities •sport •violence and assault
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