基于系统动力学的装备系统开发战略风险识别方法研究

IF 1.9 3区计算机科学 Q3 AUTOMATION & CONTROL SYSTEMS

Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.23919/JSEE.2023.000124

Wang Xinfeng;Wang Tao;Zhou Xin;Wang Yanfeng

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引用次数: 0

摘要

装备系统开发的战略管理必须重视有效的战略风险管理。针对装备系统开发的战略风险识别，首先对装备系统开发战略风险的来源进行了分析和分类。在此基础上，建立了基于系统动力学的装备系统开发战略风险因果循环图。系统动力学分析软件Vensim PLE用于进行风险影响因素分析、风险后果分析、风险反馈回路识别和相应的预控措施，取得了良好的风险识别效果。

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Research on strategic risk identification method of equipment system development based on system dynamics

Strategic management of equipment system development must attach importance to effective strategic risk management. Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development, firstly, the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified. Based on this, a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment system development based on system dynamics is established. The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis, risk consequences analysis, risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures, and achieves a good risk identification effect.

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